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How does your mind even go there? Did you consider they just give shots and see how many of treated got infected in treatment vs control group?

by Svoka 2y ago

nevi-me 2y ago
People are sexually active at different rates over different times, I also assume that a 100 people having sex with each other, where none of them have HIV, would not contract it. It's like giving police officers new buller-proof vests, and then none of them getting in the firing line. You can't say that your vests are more efficient than other vests if they technically didn't get tested. So, my thinking was how they ensure that all test groups are sexually exposed to other people with HIV, for the trial to be effective.
- opprobium 2y ago
  South Africa (study was in SA and Uganda) has an adult HIV prevalence of 18.3% and 210k new infections per year. It is easy to select a high risk group in which you would expect to see new HIV infections during the course of the study without intervention.
- imzadi 2y ago
  They don't need to ensure that all test groups are exposed to people with HIV. There is already a known risk factor for the specific population. All they need to do is see if the people who received the medication had more/fewer/similar infection rates as those who didn't. Think about it like studies on which cars perform better in crashes. They don't need to have people drive more wrecklessly to determine if the car is safer. They just need to look at the expected risk compared to the outcomes of the people who drive that car. They are already doing the risky thing.
- loeg 2y ago
  > So, my thinking was how they ensure that all test groups are sexually exposed to other people with HIV, for the trial to be effective. They don't. Some people will organically have sex with people with HIV, and some will not. Your study just needs to recruit enough participants that it is likely some will. Your study absolutely does not tell people to deliberately have sex with HIV+ partners.
- langcss 2y ago
  I think it is like coin flips, do enough of them and the total heads or tails gets very predictable even though individual flips are not.

How does your mind even go there? Did you consider they just give shots and see how many of treated got infected in treatment vs control group?

by Svoka 2y ago

How does your mind even go there? Did you consider they just give shots and see how many of treated got infected in treatment vs control group?

nevi-me 2y ago

People are sexually active at different rates over different times, I also assume that a 100 people having sex with each other, where none of them have HIV, would not contract it. It's like giving police officers new buller-proof vests, and then none of them getting in the firing line. You can't say that your vests are more efficient than other vests if they technically didn't get tested. So, my thinking was how they ensure that all test groups are sexually exposed to other people with HIV, for the trial to be effective.

opprobium 2y ago
South Africa (study was in SA and Uganda) has an adult HIV prevalence of 18.3% and 210k new infections per year. It is easy to select a high risk group in which you would expect to see new HIV infections during the course of the study without intervention.
imzadi 2y ago
They don't need to ensure that all test groups are exposed to people with HIV. There is already a known risk factor for the specific population. All they need to do is see if the people who received the medication had more/fewer/similar infection rates as those who didn't. Think about it like studies on which cars perform better in crashes. They don't need to have people drive more wrecklessly to determine if the car is safer. They just need to look at the expected risk compared to the outcomes of the people who drive that car. They are already doing the risky thing.
loeg 2y ago
> So, my thinking was how they ensure that all test groups are sexually exposed to other people with HIV, for the trial to be effective. They don't. Some people will organically have sex with people with HIV, and some will not. Your study just needs to recruit enough participants that it is likely some will. Your study absolutely does not tell people to deliberately have sex with HIV+ partners.
langcss 2y ago
I think it is like coin flips, do enough of them and the total heads or tails gets very predictable even though individual flips are not.