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I think the idea is that a safe super intelligence would help solve those problems. I am skeptical because the vast majority are social coordination problems,

by wffurr 2y ago

I think the idea is that a safe super intelligence would help solve those problems. I am skeptical because the vast majority are social coordination problems, and I don’t see how a machine intelligence no matter how smart can help with that.

rubyfan 2y ago
So instead of a super intelligence either killing us all or saving us from ourselves, we’ll just have one that can be controlled to extract more wealth from us.
- insane_dreamer 2y ago
  IMO, this is the most likely outcome
azinman2 2y ago
Exactly. Or who gets the results of its outputs. How do we prioritize limited compute?
- kjkjadksj 2y ago
  Even not just the compute but energy use at all. All the energy burned on training just to ask it the stupidest questions, by the numbers at least. All that energy that could have been used to power towns, schools, and hospitals the world over that lack sufficient power even in this modern age. Sure there's costs to bringing power to someplace, its not handwavy but a hard problem, but still, it is pretty perverse where our priorities lie in terms of distributing the earths resources to the earths humans.
  - azinman2 2y ago
    Unused electricity in one location is not fungible to be available elsewhere.
    - kjkjadksj 2y ago
      No, but the money used to build the power plant at one location was theoretically fungible.
      - azinman2 2y ago
        Norway choosing not to build a plant will not result in Guatemala getting that money instead.
mdp2021 2y ago
> I am skeptical because the vast majority are social coordination problems, and I don’t see how Leadership.
WXLCKNO 2y ago
By any means necessary I presume. If Russian propaganda helped get Trump elected, AI propaganda could help social coordination by influencing public perception of issues and microtargeting down to the individual level to get people on board.
- probablybetter 2y ago
  could but it's owners might have a vested interest in influencing public perceptions to PREVENT positive social outcomes and favor the owners financial interests. (seems rather more likely, given who will/would own such a machine)
VirusNewbie 2y ago
are humans smarter than apes, and do humans do a better job at solving social coordination problems?
philwelch 2y ago
Social coordination problems exist within a specific set of constraints, and that set of constraints can itself be altered. For instance, climate change is often treated as a social coordination problem, but if you could produce enough energy cheaply enough, you could solve the greenhouse gas problem unilaterally.
- insane_dreamer 2y ago
  OK, lets play this out. Lets say an AI discovers cold fusion. Given the fact that it would threaten to render extinct one of the largest global economic sectors (oil/gas), how long do you think it would take for it to actually see the light of day? We can't even wean ourselves off coal.
  - fragmede 2y ago
    Play that out. How do you see that going? Some researcher post doc with access to ChatGPT-12 just casually asks "hey this thing that violates the laws of physics as we understand them, how could that work?", and ChatGPT-12 says "oh that's easy, just frobb the frozzonator", and the post doc just wanders over to Home Depot, grabs the parts to build a cold fusion plant to do that for $50 on a post doc's salary, but is killed by the evil agents of Big Coal on the drive back to the lab? How would that work? Every idiot who doesn't understand the science and math behind fusion can now get ChatGPT-4o to give themselves an interactive review on the physics and practical reasons why cold fusion doesn't produce more power than you put in. (Muon-catalyzed fusion is a room temperature science thing we can do, but it won't produce power so it's relatively uninteresting). If cold fusion were possible and a postdoc figured out how with the help of ChatGPT-12, they'd announce it on Threads, write a draft paper, run the theoretical physics past everyone will listen, everyone wound rush to replicate and confirm, or disprove the theory, funding would roll in when it was actually agreed to be theoretically possible, we'd build it, we'd have limitless power too cheap to meter, and then we'd argue over if ChatGPT-12 deserves the Nobel or the postdoc. Cold fusion isn't being held back by Big Coal.
    - insane_dreamer 2y ago
dougb5 2y ago
I largely agree, although I do see how AI can help with social coordination problems, for example by helping elected leaders be more responsive to what their constituents need. (I spend a lot of my own time working with researchers at that intersection.) But social coordination benefits from energy research, too, and from biology research, and from the humanities, and from the arts. Computer science can't singlehandedly "solve" these problems any more than the other fields can; they are needed together, hence my gripe about total-orderings.

by wffurr 2y ago

rubyfan 2y ago

So instead of a super intelligence either killing us all or saving us from ourselves, we’ll just have one that can be controlled to extract more wealth from us.

insane_dreamer 2y ago
IMO, this is the most likely outcome

azinman2 2y ago

Exactly. Or who gets the results of its outputs. How do we prioritize limited compute?

kjkjadksj 2y ago
Even not just the compute but energy use at all. All the energy burned on training just to ask it the stupidest questions, by the numbers at least. All that energy that could have been used to power towns, schools, and hospitals the world over that lack sufficient power even in this modern age. Sure there's costs to bringing power to someplace, its not handwavy but a hard problem, but still, it is pretty perverse where our priorities lie in terms of distributing the earths resources to the earths humans.
- azinman2 2y ago
  Unused electricity in one location is not fungible to be available elsewhere.
  - kjkjadksj 2y ago
    No, but the money used to build the power plant at one location was theoretically fungible.
    - azinman2 2y ago
      Norway choosing not to build a plant will not result in Guatemala getting that money instead.

mdp2021 2y ago

> I am skeptical because the vast majority are social coordination problems, and I don’t see how Leadership.

WXLCKNO 2y ago

By any means necessary I presume. If Russian propaganda helped get Trump elected, AI propaganda could help social coordination by influencing public perception of issues and microtargeting down to the individual level to get people on board.

probablybetter 2y ago
could but it's owners might have a vested interest in influencing public perceptions to PREVENT positive social outcomes and favor the owners financial interests. (seems rather more likely, given who will/would own such a machine)

VirusNewbie 2y ago

are humans smarter than apes, and do humans do a better job at solving social coordination problems?

philwelch 2y ago

Social coordination problems exist within a specific set of constraints, and that set of constraints can itself be altered. For instance, climate change is often treated as a social coordination problem, but if you could produce enough energy cheaply enough, you could solve the greenhouse gas problem unilaterally.

insane_dreamer 2y ago
OK, lets play this out. Lets say an AI discovers cold fusion. Given the fact that it would threaten to render extinct one of the largest global economic sectors (oil/gas), how long do you think it would take for it to actually see the light of day? We can't even wean ourselves off coal.
- fragmede 2y ago
  Play that out. How do you see that going? Some researcher post doc with access to ChatGPT-12 just casually asks "hey this thing that violates the laws of physics as we understand them, how could that work?", and ChatGPT-12 says "oh that's easy, just frobb the frozzonator", and the post doc just wanders over to Home Depot, grabs the parts to build a cold fusion plant to do that for $50 on a post doc's salary, but is killed by the evil agents of Big Coal on the drive back to the lab? How would that work? Every idiot who doesn't understand the science and math behind fusion can now get ChatGPT-4o to give themselves an interactive review on the physics and practical reasons why cold fusion doesn't produce more power than you put in. (Muon-catalyzed fusion is a room temperature science thing we can do, but it won't produce power so it's relatively uninteresting). If cold fusion were possible and a postdoc figured out how with the help of ChatGPT-12, they'd announce it on Threads, write a draft paper, run the theoretical physics past everyone will listen, everyone wound rush to replicate and confirm, or disprove the theory, funding would roll in when it was actually agreed to be theoretically possible, we'd build it, we'd have limitless power too cheap to meter, and then we'd argue over if ChatGPT-12 deserves the Nobel or the postdoc. Cold fusion isn't being held back by Big Coal.
  - insane_dreamer 2y ago

dougb5 2y ago

I largely agree, although I do see how AI can help with social coordination problems, for example by helping elected leaders be more responsive to what their constituents need. (I spend a lot of my own time working with researchers at that intersection.) But social coordination benefits from energy research, too, and from biology research, and from the humanities, and from the arts. Computer science can't singlehandedly "solve" these problems any more than the other fields can; they are needed together, hence my gripe about total-orderings.