> It certainly feels like the AI bubble is popping. I wonder how much of this has to do with 15+ years of the narrative of AGI/"The Singularity" being near. De

> It certainly feels like the AI bubble is popping. I wonder how much of this has to do with 15+ years of the narrative of AGI/"The Singularity" being near. Deep learning seemed to really reinforce the narrative as it has blown away classical machine learning and succeeded in so many applications. It started to look like all of Kurzweil, et al's predictions were dead on. Particularly as LLMs took off. Of course, we're now seeing the apparent limitations in very difficult applications like reasoning as LLMs have mostly been revealed to be a dead end path towards reasoning (with apologies to Blake Lemoine ;) ). And self driving is being revealed to be extremely, extremely difficult to solve with pattern matching alone. Even the traditionally conservative Apple seems to have bought into the hype (though some of the applications will be pretty useful, IMO, after a few generations of release). I saw somewhere (X I think) someone made the case that the latest generation of AI buzz has only created between $5-$50 billion in value despite investments measured as a multiple of that. I found it convincing. Personally, I'm still a believer that AGI will happen, but I am convinced by Yann Lecun's take. We're not even on the on ramp yet, and all the bluster and hand wringing over safety threatens to kill or tragically stall the most important technology in all of human history. [1][2][3][4] [1] https://x.com/ylecun/status/1662020967529435140 https://x.com/ylecun/status/1662020967529435140 [2] https://x.com/ylecun/status/1801018194121118103 https://x.com/ylecun/status/1801018194121118103 [3] https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1791890883425570823 https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1791890883425570823 [4] https://x.com/ylecun/status/1795032310590378405?lang=en https://x.com/ylecun/status/1795032310590378405?lang=en