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Uranium exists almost in every country and is like 1% of the cost of nuclear power. It's availability is not a risk. There is enough of it to power Earth for mi

Uranium exists almost in every country and is like 1% of the cost of nuclear power. It's availability is not a risk. There is enough of it to power Earth for millions of years.

natmaka 2y ago
Nope. "As of 2017, identified uranium reserves recoverable at US$130/kg were 6.14 million tons (compared to 5.72 million tons in 2015). At the rate of consumption in 2017, these reserves are sufficient for slightly over 130 years of supply." Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining#Peak_uranium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining#Peak_uranium Nuclear produces about 9% of electricity worldwide ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_mix#World https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_mix#World ), which in turn is about 22% of the consumed (final)) energy. Nuclear produces less than 2% of our energy. This is roughly linear: 130 years at 2%, therefore 65 years at 4% (and no one will nowadays invest in a reactor with no hope to exploit it for at the very least 60 years) Exploiting uranium ore of a lesser grade is possible but quickly gets more expensive and adds to nuclear greenhouse-gas emissions ( see the study "Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Nuclear Electricity Generation" in "Journal of Industrial Ecology" (2012, Warner, Heath)): up to 110g eqCO2/KWh .
- insane_dreamer 2y ago
  Those are _identified_ reserves. The same was said about peak oil until much larger deposits were found and/or new extraction methods discovered. Not saying it's unlimited, but at current consumption rates we're much more likely to run out of petroleum than uranium[0]. But of course we've been saying we have "50 years left" of petroleum for decades, so who knows. And that doesn't account for alternative fuel sources such as thorium[1] [0] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=38&t=6 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=38&t=6 [1] https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/thoriums-long-term-potential-in-nuclear-energy-new-iaea-analysis https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/thoriums-long-term-pote...
  - natmaka 2y ago
    > until much larger deposits were found When it comes to uranium this is a mere wish (low and decaying probability), as exploration is very efficient because major investments were made during the 1950's, in order to obtain stuff needed for atomic weapons: we are pretty good at finding uranium (much more than for petroleum), and forecasting proved efficient at predicting such events. The uranium bubble (around 2007), for example, triggered a massive investments raise, but subsequent campaigns had very insufficient results (identified reserves grow by ~15%) and campaigns winded down. The most promising game-changing new uranium extraction method (from seawater) lags since the 1980's. Nothing industrial here. Same for thorium (and all Gen4 reactors): there is not a single ready-to-deploy industrial reactor. It is about a "Long-Term Potential in Nuclear Energy" (title of the document you refer to), nobody takes it as a significant part of our incoming electrical system.

Uranium exists almost in every country and is like 1% of the cost of nuclear power. It's availability is not a risk. There is enough of it to power Earth for millions of years.

natmaka 2y ago

Nope. "As of 2017, identified uranium reserves recoverable at US$130/kg were 6.14 million tons (compared to 5.72 million tons in 2015). At the rate of consumption in 2017, these reserves are sufficient for slightly over 130 years of supply." Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining#Peak_uranium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining#Peak_uranium Nuclear produces about 9% of electricity worldwide ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_mix#World https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_mix#World ), which in turn is about 22% of the consumed (final)) energy. Nuclear produces less than 2% of our energy. This is roughly linear: 130 years at 2%, therefore 65 years at 4% (and no one will nowadays invest in a reactor with no hope to exploit it for at the very least 60 years) Exploiting uranium ore of a lesser grade is possible but quickly gets more expensive and adds to nuclear greenhouse-gas emissions ( see the study "Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Nuclear Electricity Generation" in "Journal of Industrial Ecology" (2012, Warner, Heath)): up to 110g eqCO2/KWh .

insane_dreamer 2y ago
Those are _identified_ reserves. The same was said about peak oil until much larger deposits were found and/or new extraction methods discovered. Not saying it's unlimited, but at current consumption rates we're much more likely to run out of petroleum than uranium[0]. But of course we've been saying we have "50 years left" of petroleum for decades, so who knows. And that doesn't account for alternative fuel sources such as thorium[1] [0] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=38&t=6 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=38&t=6 [1] https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/thoriums-long-term-potential-in-nuclear-energy-new-iaea-analysis https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/thoriums-long-term-pote...
- natmaka 2y ago
  > until much larger deposits were found When it comes to uranium this is a mere wish (low and decaying probability), as exploration is very efficient because major investments were made during the 1950's, in order to obtain stuff needed for atomic weapons: we are pretty good at finding uranium (much more than for petroleum), and forecasting proved efficient at predicting such events. The uranium bubble (around 2007), for example, triggered a massive investments raise, but subsequent campaigns had very insufficient results (identified reserves grow by ~15%) and campaigns winded down. The most promising game-changing new uranium extraction method (from seawater) lags since the 1980's. Nothing industrial here. Same for thorium (and all Gen4 reactors): there is not a single ready-to-deploy industrial reactor. It is about a "Long-Term Potential in Nuclear Energy" (title of the document you refer to), nobody takes it as a significant part of our incoming electrical system.