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I don't really think there's any reason to expect this. I'd look to the USSR - not that they are an ideal to strive for, but because they are relevant on this t

I don't really think there's any reason to expect this. I'd look to the USSR - not that they are an ideal to strive for, but because they are relevant on this topic. The USSR was exceptionally over-educated to the point that Russia remains literally the most educated country in the world, at least as of 2014. [1] And the USSR was (largely excepting the Stalin era) also huge on social justice, women's rights, and so on. They even had gender quotas for various government positions. Yet they had a relatively healthy fertility rate up until about the time of their collapse. In fact when you look at any typical modern fertility correlation explanation, they all really just fall apart under the slightest of scrutiny. Education/income stuff? Look at Thailand - extremely low education, extremely low income, extremely low fertility - even lower than Japan! So what is the real driving factor? It seems clear that if people believe 'true happiness' is just one 'thing' away, then they are motivated to continue chasing those things. Children don't really have a place in this sort of world - as they simply imperil your ability to pursue that sort of perceived happiness. And governments and companies alike have every motivation in the world to push this 'thing based' worldview, consumerism in other words, because it generates income, increases GDP, and so on. This is the only fertility correlate that explains literally everything in a clean and consistent fashion. For instance the bell curve of income:fertility (very poor and very rich have far more children than the middle class) can be easily explained - both the very poor and very rich are unable to participate in consumerism. The former because of too little money, the latter because they have too much. Thailand? Yes, it's very poor yet there is also rampant consumerism at all levels, and it's even a place when walking into the most mainstream mall in the capitol you're immediately greeted with a literal lambo dealership. And so on for the countless other issues and counter-examples that contemporary fertility correlates fail to explain. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tertiary_education_attainment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tertiary_...

lotsofpulp 2y ago
> In fact when you look at any typical modern fertility correlation explanation, they all really just fall apart under the slightest of scrutiny. Education/income stuff? Look at Thailand - extremely low education, extremely low income, extremely low fertility - even lower than Japan! So what is the real driving factor? It seems clear that if people believe 'true happiness' is just one 'thing' away, then they are motivated to continue chasing those things. Children don't really have a place in this sort of world - as they simply imperil your ability to pursue that sort of perceived happiness. Don’t they correlate with access women’s rights and access to contraception? I see a very strong correlation with the ability for a woman to live on her own and/or the ability for a woman to access healthcare that prevents her from having to give birth with fertility rate declines. There is clearly a mismatch between the near term costs of pregnancy/childbirth/infant rearing and the long term benefits of having kids. Humans are unique in that they are the only species (I think) that can analyze and opt out of the mechanism by which evolution propagates the species. I also don’t know how representative Russia is because broad availability and use of very effective and “easy” birth control (IUD/pills) took place in more recent decades. And according to Wikipedia, Russia did roll back women’s rights to only allowing abortion at 12 weeks (passed 2011): > During the 2000s, Russia's steadily falling population (due to both negative birthrates and low life expectancy) became a major source of concern, even forcing the military to curtail conscription due to shortages of young males. On 21 October 2011, the Russian Parliament passed a law restricting abortion to the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, with an exception up to 22 weeks if the pregnancy was the result of rape, and for medical necessity it can be performed at any point during pregnancy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Russia
- somenameforme 2y ago
  A lot of things you're referencing are quite ambiguous so it's difficult for me to understand exactly what you mean. For instance contraceptives have been widely available in many countries with healthy birth rates for an extremely long period of time. South America is full of such examples, as well as women who have long since played a major role in the labor pool. As for what I was talking about, Russia is not the USSR. Following the collapse of the USSR, Russia (alongside all former Soviet nations) entered into a catastrophic era. Birth rates, income, safety, and basically every other aspect of life plummeted to dangerously low levels during the 90s, which throws off absolutely all data because of something completely unrelated to anything we're discussing.
  - lotsofpulp 2y ago
    >For instance contraceptives have been widely available in many countries with healthy birth rates for an extremely long period of time. South America is full of such examples, as well as women who have long since played a major role in the labor pool. It takes time for the knowledge and culture about birth control to spread. South America specifically had a lot of Catholic influence which probably prevented many women from choosing or obtaining birth control. Also, modern birth control like IUDs are just a whole different beast. Whereas there were “accidental” pregnancies in previous generations, there are almost none these days unless you are aiming to become pregnant at some point. Fair enough about Russia, but the USSR was a long time ago now, and I don’t see any modern society with replacement level birth rates outside of small religious groups or immigrants that still have the momentum of raising traditional families, which evidence says dissipates after the first generation.
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      Lots of uptake of permanent birth control as well recently (vasectomies and bilateral salpingectomy) in the US specifically. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/2817438 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullartic...
    - somenameforme 2y ago

lotsofpulp 2y ago

> In fact when you look at any typical modern fertility correlation explanation, they all really just fall apart under the slightest of scrutiny. Education/income stuff? Look at Thailand - extremely low education, extremely low income, extremely low fertility - even lower than Japan! So what is the real driving factor? It seems clear that if people believe 'true happiness' is just one 'thing' away, then they are motivated to continue chasing those things. Children don't really have a place in this sort of world - as they simply imperil your ability to pursue that sort of perceived happiness. Don’t they correlate with access women’s rights and access to contraception? I see a very strong correlation with the ability for a woman to live on her own and/or the ability for a woman to access healthcare that prevents her from having to give birth with fertility rate declines. There is clearly a mismatch between the near term costs of pregnancy/childbirth/infant rearing and the long term benefits of having kids. Humans are unique in that they are the only species (I think) that can analyze and opt out of the mechanism by which evolution propagates the species. I also don’t know how representative Russia is because broad availability and use of very effective and “easy” birth control (IUD/pills) took place in more recent decades. And according to Wikipedia, Russia did roll back women’s rights to only allowing abortion at 12 weeks (passed 2011): > During the 2000s, Russia's steadily falling population (due to both negative birthrates and low life expectancy) became a major source of concern, even forcing the military to curtail conscription due to shortages of young males. On 21 October 2011, the Russian Parliament passed a law restricting abortion to the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, with an exception up to 22 weeks if the pregnancy was the result of rape, and for medical necessity it can be performed at any point during pregnancy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Russia

somenameforme 2y ago
A lot of things you're referencing are quite ambiguous so it's difficult for me to understand exactly what you mean. For instance contraceptives have been widely available in many countries with healthy birth rates for an extremely long period of time. South America is full of such examples, as well as women who have long since played a major role in the labor pool. As for what I was talking about, Russia is not the USSR. Following the collapse of the USSR, Russia (alongside all former Soviet nations) entered into a catastrophic era. Birth rates, income, safety, and basically every other aspect of life plummeted to dangerously low levels during the 90s, which throws off absolutely all data because of something completely unrelated to anything we're discussing.
- lotsofpulp 2y ago
  >For instance contraceptives have been widely available in many countries with healthy birth rates for an extremely long period of time. South America is full of such examples, as well as women who have long since played a major role in the labor pool. It takes time for the knowledge and culture about birth control to spread. South America specifically had a lot of Catholic influence which probably prevented many women from choosing or obtaining birth control. Also, modern birth control like IUDs are just a whole different beast. Whereas there were “accidental” pregnancies in previous generations, there are almost none these days unless you are aiming to become pregnant at some point. Fair enough about Russia, but the USSR was a long time ago now, and I don’t see any modern society with replacement level birth rates outside of small religious groups or immigrants that still have the momentum of raising traditional families, which evidence says dissipates after the first generation.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Lots of uptake of permanent birth control as well recently (vasectomies and bilateral salpingectomy) in the US specifically. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/2817438 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullartic...
  - somenameforme 2y ago