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https://archive.is/ejnxk https://archive.is/ejnxk As an Australian house owner, I consider the local perception that house prices have recently been increasing

https://archive.is/ejnxk https://archive.is/ejnxk As an Australian house owner, I consider the local perception that house prices have recently been increasing[0] to be largely based on domestic misconception. Rationale: If you take in to account USD/AUD currency shift[1] over the recent period, house prices are functionally flat or thereabouts. This view also accords better with cost of living shifts. Given this 'boots on the ground' view, I find it strange and remarkable that the Economist, which usually has fairly well reasoned journalism (and excellent editing), selects Australia as a stand-out market casually based upon some inspecific Goldies' analysis. [0] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/residential-property-price-indexes-eight-capital-cities/latest-release#residential-property-price-indexes https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-... [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/2551/australian-us-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/2551/australian-us-dollar-exchan...

keyle 2y ago
I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, the data is ending in 2021, we're in 2024. The landscape looks quite different after the pandemic rebound. Also the fact that you compare it to the USD/AUD is silly, 99+% of us aren't paid in USD. If I could barely afford a 1.1M house in 2020 that is now 1.6M, we have a big problem. The affordability crisis is local first. We were lucky we bought our house in 2018. It's doubled in value since. Rejoice? No. Why? Because if we sold, it's not like we could afford any better. We've just raised the floor for everyone, essentially locking out the youth. This isn't good by any metrics.
- contingencies 2y ago
  I didn't comment on local affordability, which I agree has been bad for 20+ years. What I commented on was the false perception that aggregate value has increased "because the number went up", which seems to dominate local media. Pre/post COVID doesn't seem to have changed that.
unlikelymordant 2y ago
Australian houses aren't bought with american dollars though. If this were the case wouldnt we see a big correlation between house prices and USD exchange rates? Why wouldn't the correlation be with other currencies such as china. Honest questions, it seems to me like massive immigration/low supply seems to e plain things pretty well.

keyle 2y ago

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, the data is ending in 2021, we're in 2024. The landscape looks quite different after the pandemic rebound. Also the fact that you compare it to the USD/AUD is silly, 99+% of us aren't paid in USD. If I could barely afford a 1.1M house in 2020 that is now 1.6M, we have a big problem. The affordability crisis is local first. We were lucky we bought our house in 2018. It's doubled in value since. Rejoice? No. Why? Because if we sold, it's not like we could afford any better. We've just raised the floor for everyone, essentially locking out the youth. This isn't good by any metrics.

contingencies 2y ago
I didn't comment on local affordability, which I agree has been bad for 20+ years. What I commented on was the false perception that aggregate value has increased "because the number went up", which seems to dominate local media. Pre/post COVID doesn't seem to have changed that.

unlikelymordant 2y ago

Australian houses aren't bought with american dollars though. If this were the case wouldnt we see a big correlation between house prices and USD exchange rates? Why wouldn't the correlation be with other currencies such as china. Honest questions, it seems to me like massive immigration/low supply seems to e plain things pretty well.