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House prices are surging once again
- contingencies 2y agohttps://archive.is/ejnxk https://archive.is/ejnxk As an Australian house owner, I consider the local perception that house prices have recently been increasing[0] to be largely based on domestic misconception. Rationale: If you take in to account USD/AUD currency shift[1] over the recent period, house prices are functionally flat or thereabouts. This view also accords better with cost of living shifts. Given this 'boots on the ground' view, I find it strange and remarkable that the Economist, which usually has fairly well reasoned journalism (and excellent editing), selects Australia as a stand-out market casually based upon some inspecific Goldies' analysis. [0] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/residential-property-price-indexes-eight-capital-cities/latest-release#residential-property-price-indexes https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-... [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/2551/australian-us-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/2551/australian-us-dollar-exchan...
- keyle 2y agoI'm not sure I understand what you're saying, the data is ending in 2021, we're in 2024. The landscape looks quite different after the pandemic rebound. Also the fact that you compare it to the USD/AUD is silly, 99+% of us aren't paid in USD. If I could barely afford a 1.1M house in 2020 that is now 1.6M, we have a big problem. The affordability crisis is local first. We were lucky we bought our house in 2018. It's doubled in value since. Rejoice? No. Why? Because if we sold, it's not like we could afford any better. We've just raised the floor for everyone, essentially locking out the youth. This isn't good by any metrics.
- contingencies 2y agoI didn't comment on local affordability, which I agree has been bad for 20+ years. What I commented on was the false perception that aggregate value has increased "because the number went up", which seems to dominate local media. Pre/post COVID doesn't seem to have changed that.
- unlikelymordant 2y agoAustralian houses aren't bought with american dollars though. If this were the case wouldnt we see a big correlation between house prices and USD exchange rates? Why wouldn't the correlation be with other currencies such as china. Honest questions, it seems to me like massive immigration/low supply seems to e plain things pretty well.
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- ramshanker 2y agoI can confirm the same for my locality in India. ~20 to ~30% jump in last 1year.
- mewpmewp2 2y agoThis is hardly a surge though. Only 3 to 6 percent increase year over year.
- bobthepanda 2y ago6.5 YoY in the US would be double YoY inflation.
- mewpmewp2 2y agoThat is still less than average in the past 30 years, no?
- tomrod 2y agoThe statistic in your area you are seeking is the Case Schiller Index.
- bobthepanda 2y agoThat it is less bad doesn’t make it good considering 30 years of this has led to the current housing crisis.
- mewpmewp2 2y agoI'm not evaluating bad or good, it just doesn't seem like a "surge" or "soaring" if it's below average historically.
- bobthepanda 2y agoIt is a surge compared to last year’s activity with flat or declining prices in markets. The layperson is generally not using a thirty year rolling average as a baseline, and the headline makes no attempt to say it is a historic anomaly.
- danparsonson 2y agoA six percent annual increase will double prices in twelve years.
- ctime 2y agoReal estate often operates on margins and has long been considered a prime store of value. In the United States, the origins of cash used in real estate transactions are rarely scrutinized, and cash-only purchases have reached a decade high this year. Why does real estate remain relatively strong in some countries? Likely because savvy investors either want to live there or believe others will. Real estate prices in California are at their peak, and while the media might anticipate a housing crash, it's unlikely. With large amounts of money needing a place to go and states like Florida enacting xenophobic policies that deter investment, California remains an attractive option. [1] [NAR Realtor Blog](https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/the-share-of-all-cash-buyers-highest-since-2014-at-32-of-all-buyers https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/the-share-o...) [2] [CNN](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/06/17/homes/florida-law-bans-chinese-citizens-buying-homes https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/06/17/homes/florida-law-bans-ch...)
- tssva 2y agoI live in, or did until recently technically now I live a little outside, a very competitive housing market. All cash offers have become the norm to secure housing in the most in demand areas even for those purchasing their primary homes vs investment properties. How this often works is a cash offer financer completes the purchase from the seller and in turn sells it to the buyer once their mortgage has been secured. The buyer rents the house from the financier until this happens. Sometimes the agreement is the financier will only purchase the property if the buyer doesn’t have their mortgage in place by the closing date.
- andrewmutz 2y agoThere is a housing shortage caused by excessive regulation. High prices will continue until until it’s addressed.
- more_corn 2y agoYeah regulations like fire safety. Roll those back.
- riffic 2y agoThe shirtwaists aren't going to triangle themselves now.
- bobthepanda 2y agoThe US actually has higher rates of fire fatalities than other, denser OECD countries. https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v12i8.pdf https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v12i8.pdf If the current zoning regulations are an attempt to have people not die in fires, they’re not working that well.
- freitzkriesler2 2y agoDont be disingenuous with strawmen. It has everything to do with restrictive zoning and building codes. NYC is a prime example, there are tons of empty commercial office buildings. But they will never house people because building codes require every room to have natural light. Rules also restrict share and boarding houses which used to provide affordable housing to many people. No one said affordable housing needed to have windows in every room or home very room to have a bathroom. They're affordable for a reason and this is the norm in every other part of the world. It's time to start thinking like every other country and culture.
- LeafItAlone 2y agoWhat do you say about the reasons those regulations exist? It didn’t start that way; they were added after years and events. Also, NYC has a lot of new residential buildings going up. I see them all over. But every time I look up what’s it’s for, it’s for the ultra-wealthy - $10s of millions per (huge) condo.
- notfed 2y agoThis is highly variant depending on where you live, and in many places the prices are dropping.
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- freitzkriesler2 2y agoAnnoying becauae someone on my block with a similar comp just put their house for sale at 370 and I bought for 395. This is on Texas where prices are saner.
- sys_64738 2y ago"Rohin Dhar, a housing expert, has pointed out that lots of listings in Florida feature the phrase “motivated”, which implies people are selling in a hurry." Probably trying to escape the silent home insurance crisis in FL more than any other reason.
- nojvek 2y agoWhat is the silent home insurance crisis?
- jareklupinski 2y agoif they say, it wouldn't be silent ;)
- e15ctr0n 2y agoThe skyrocketing cost of home insurance in Florida is causing some residents to sell their properties and relocate. https://www.newsweek.com/florida- https://www.newsweek.com/florida- homeowners-relocating-insurance-crisis-cost-1893248 · Apr 24, 2024