5 ms·

> Isn't it a bit wishful thinking to think that storage will come down in price and nuclear won't? It's been true for 50 years, assuming it will be true for an

> Isn't it a bit wishful thinking to think that storage will come down in price and nuclear won't? It's been true for 50 years, assuming it will be true for another decade or two is not wishful thinking. > Beyond that, leaving out storage costs, what are the technologies that can cover the world's storage? And in what quantities? Batteries for short term storage and pumped hydro for long term storage. > Because if I think of lithium, wouldn't it be an environmental disaster to extract and recycle all the materials involved? No. > In general, I don't understand why basically nuclear is to be replaced. It's inevitable that the cheapest solution will win. Not the best, but the cheapest.

Herz 2y ago
> It's been true for 50 years, assuming it will be true for another decade or two is not wishful thinking. Well it's one thing though to use the storage for a cell phones and some cars, another to keep all the industries and homes going on. Do you have any data about what you claim? For example in italy of hydro, nothing has been built for decades, everything that could be used has been used. If we want to go further, it's necessary to destroy valleys. Your arguments do not go beyond whishful thinking... At least you need some data.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- Retric 2y ago
  > Well it's one thing though to use the storage for a cell phones and some cars, another to keep all the industries and homes going on. Not really. If all vehicles on the road where 100% PEV’s your looking at ~250 TWh in batteries. 1/5 of that would be ~50TWh. Global electricity demand is about 70 TWh per day. You don’t need 70 TWh worth of storage if daily production is > daily demand. It all comes down to which is cheaper, extra storage or extra generating capacity. However ~25 TWh of storage is likely sufficient for a grid equally stable as what we have today. (100% EV’s would increase that 70TWh/day but that’s offset by charging them when power is cheap.)
  - Herz 2y ago
    I quite believe in it with the fact that it is feasible in the coming decades a way to redistirbute peak energy through daily storage. The problems in my opinion is assuming too much that everything will go as planned according to current trends (cheaper renewable, cheaper battery, enough production, 100+% penetration, etc). Because we're talking about several independent variables, and there's a chance (in my opinion quite large) that not everything will go as predicted. If we find out in a few decades that the price of solar, batteries or renewables is no longer going down (and the reasons could be many, like a war, or a plateau in penetration), it could be enough to ruin those expectations. And discover that putting all our hopes in a single event could be our downfall. Besides, even if daily storage is feasible, with current trends, we're still a long way from seasonal storage... That's my opinion, which is why I think it's necessary to invest and believe in all technologies, without looking for the one we like the most or looks the most promising, since it leads to big bias and overestimation.
    - bryanlarsen 2y ago
      There are enough innovations in the pipeline that it's very safe to predict continuing battery price drops for the next decade, another 80% reduction or so. It's possible it stops after a decade. At that point nuclear would need a 100x price reduction to compete.
      - Herz 2y ago
        https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/fig1battery.png https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/fig1battery.pn... Sorry but where do you see this 80% drop? When the price of storage seems close to reaching a plateau (which by the way is also what I assumed in previous comments). I understand being optimistic, but you claim to know the future while also denying the present... It's ironic.
        bryanlarsen 2y ago
        Easy prediction with a 50% drop since last summer. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/07/battery-prices-collapsing-grid-tied-energy-storage-expanding/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/07/battery-prices-collap...

Herz 2y ago

> It's been true for 50 years, assuming it will be true for another decade or two is not wishful thinking. Well it's one thing though to use the storage for a cell phones and some cars, another to keep all the industries and homes going on. Do you have any data about what you claim? For example in italy of hydro, nothing has been built for decades, everything that could be used has been used. If we want to go further, it's necessary to destroy valleys. Your arguments do not go beyond whishful thinking... At least you need some data.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
Retric 2y ago
> Well it's one thing though to use the storage for a cell phones and some cars, another to keep all the industries and homes going on. Not really. If all vehicles on the road where 100% PEV’s your looking at ~250 TWh in batteries. 1/5 of that would be ~50TWh. Global electricity demand is about 70 TWh per day. You don’t need 70 TWh worth of storage if daily production is > daily demand. It all comes down to which is cheaper, extra storage or extra generating capacity. However ~25 TWh of storage is likely sufficient for a grid equally stable as what we have today. (100% EV’s would increase that 70TWh/day but that’s offset by charging them when power is cheap.)
- Herz 2y ago
  I quite believe in it with the fact that it is feasible in the coming decades a way to redistirbute peak energy through daily storage. The problems in my opinion is assuming too much that everything will go as planned according to current trends (cheaper renewable, cheaper battery, enough production, 100+% penetration, etc). Because we're talking about several independent variables, and there's a chance (in my opinion quite large) that not everything will go as predicted. If we find out in a few decades that the price of solar, batteries or renewables is no longer going down (and the reasons could be many, like a war, or a plateau in penetration), it could be enough to ruin those expectations. And discover that putting all our hopes in a single event could be our downfall. Besides, even if daily storage is feasible, with current trends, we're still a long way from seasonal storage... That's my opinion, which is why I think it's necessary to invest and believe in all technologies, without looking for the one we like the most or looks the most promising, since it leads to big bias and overestimation.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    There are enough innovations in the pipeline that it's very safe to predict continuing battery price drops for the next decade, another 80% reduction or so. It's possible it stops after a decade. At that point nuclear would need a 100x price reduction to compete.
    - Herz 2y ago
      https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/fig1battery.png https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/fig1battery.pn... Sorry but where do you see this 80% drop? When the price of storage seems close to reaching a plateau (which by the way is also what I assumed in previous comments). I understand being optimistic, but you claim to know the future while also denying the present... It's ironic.
      - bryanlarsen 2y ago
        Easy prediction with a 50% drop since last summer. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/07/battery-prices-collapsing-grid-tied-energy-storage-expanding/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/07/battery-prices-collap...