2 ms·
I don't. The human sensorium (whether actually looking at an image, or visualizing something based on some numbers) has limited dynamic range. Sometimes, it ca
by LeifCarrotson 2y ago
I don't. The human sensorium (whether actually looking at an image, or visualizing something based on some numbers) has limited dynamic range.
Sometimes, it can help a little to convert to something vaguely human-scale, which probably doesn't fit on a screen. The surface area of the planet is ~500 million km^2, there's a large park near me with long, clear sight lines where I go for runs play disc golf that's about 5 square km. If I shrink the ~3x2 meter satellite dimensions by an equivalent factor of about 100M, it's an object with a size of 30x20 micrometers (unless I've screwed up a square-cube ratio somewhere), on the order of a grain of silt, the thickness of a Sharpie ink mark, or something a little smaller than a cross-section of a hair. My intuition approximates those dimensions and probabilities of two of those infinitesimal specs all the way to zero.
On the other hand, tens of thousands of satellites, those barely-palpable specs crossing that region of space once every 90 minutes, for hundreds of years? Then my intuition says it's a certainty!
Facing the multiplication of an impossibility with a certainty, intuition says they cancel out and it's a 50/50 chance, which is just not how it works.
Sometimes you have to just do the math and trust the numbers.