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I see buses driving around my city all the time. They're noisy, pollute, take up space, and often have one or two people on them. Why do you think the TCO is

I see buses driving around my city all the time. They're noisy, pollute, take up space, and often have one or two people on them. Why do you think the TCO is less for a bus than for a self driving car? Why would it be more efficient to have mass transit when you don't have extremely high density? Can you share some data?

jimberlage 2y ago
He might have meant trains rather than buses when he brought up mass transit. It's rare I've been on a train in a metro area only carrying one or two people.
iamleppert 2y ago
If self driving cars were really capital efficient, why hasn't Google replaced their fleet of busses that travel the south bay to SF with their self driving cars? It's not because of anything technical, it's because it doesn't make any financial sense to replace a bus (even one that carries a few people) with a self-driving car. That, and the business unit that actually operates the shuttle busses lives in the real world.
- creato 2y ago
  Google's buses looked pretty full a lot of the time (a few years ago at least). The economics of those are probably pretty good. That said: I doubt city buses are that bad either. Data is needed for both of these points, speculation is a waste of time.
- VirusNewbie 2y ago
  >t, why hasn't Google replaced their fleet of busses that travel the south bay to SF They ARE slowly replacing busses with ride share and will probably move to self driving once the city approves it.
- fragmede 2y ago
  the business unit that actually operates the waymos operate in the real world, and so are subject to real life scaling problems. Assume the self driving cars are capital efficient and could actually make the drive from San Francisco to Mountain view (they legally are allowed to, but Waymo has not unlocked this ability to the general public). yYu still need to manufacture the damn things, and Google isn't a car company. Manufacturing is hard. Tesla making 5,000 Model 3's that fist quarter was considered an impossible accomplishment. Google is reliant on many third parties to produce Waymos. How long do you think is should take them to replace busses assuming those priors? It's gonna take some time. Regardless of the economics of it, they can't just magic up a fleet of Waymos. That production has been planned for and allocated and remember, they don't actually offer rides down the peninsula that the shuttle busses do yet. That said, I can't wait for Waymo technology to mature and be cheap enough for cities to use them on mini buses.
id00 2y ago
Maybe your city should invest in better buses, road infrastructure (eg bus lanes) so they not stuck in traffic, and optimize the schedule and then you will see that the public transit is actually a more efficient alternative to self driving taxis
- VirusNewbie 2y ago
  Can you clarify your argument? Is it that "no, buses are not more efficient, but with enough investment they can be?". Do you have some data to share to show this is true in suburban environments? I live in a very wealthy area, budget is not a problem for the city, the busses are clean and well run. But they're often empty...
- Turing_Machine 2y ago
  > road infrastructure (eg bus lanes) so they not stuck in traffic Bus lanes aren't going to do anything to help with the real bottleneck in city bus transport: having to stop every couple of blocks to let people on and off.

jimberlage 2y ago

He might have meant trains rather than buses when he brought up mass transit. It's rare I've been on a train in a metro area only carrying one or two people.

iamleppert 2y ago

If self driving cars were really capital efficient, why hasn't Google replaced their fleet of busses that travel the south bay to SF with their self driving cars? It's not because of anything technical, it's because it doesn't make any financial sense to replace a bus (even one that carries a few people) with a self-driving car. That, and the business unit that actually operates the shuttle busses lives in the real world.

creato 2y ago
Google's buses looked pretty full a lot of the time (a few years ago at least). The economics of those are probably pretty good. That said: I doubt city buses are that bad either. Data is needed for both of these points, speculation is a waste of time.
VirusNewbie 2y ago
>t, why hasn't Google replaced their fleet of busses that travel the south bay to SF They ARE slowly replacing busses with ride share and will probably move to self driving once the city approves it.
fragmede 2y ago
the business unit that actually operates the waymos operate in the real world, and so are subject to real life scaling problems. Assume the self driving cars are capital efficient and could actually make the drive from San Francisco to Mountain view (they legally are allowed to, but Waymo has not unlocked this ability to the general public). yYu still need to manufacture the damn things, and Google isn't a car company. Manufacturing is hard. Tesla making 5,000 Model 3's that fist quarter was considered an impossible accomplishment. Google is reliant on many third parties to produce Waymos. How long do you think is should take them to replace busses assuming those priors? It's gonna take some time. Regardless of the economics of it, they can't just magic up a fleet of Waymos. That production has been planned for and allocated and remember, they don't actually offer rides down the peninsula that the shuttle busses do yet. That said, I can't wait for Waymo technology to mature and be cheap enough for cities to use them on mini buses.

id00 2y ago

Maybe your city should invest in better buses, road infrastructure (eg bus lanes) so they not stuck in traffic, and optimize the schedule and then you will see that the public transit is actually a more efficient alternative to self driving taxis

VirusNewbie 2y ago
Can you clarify your argument? Is it that "no, buses are not more efficient, but with enough investment they can be?". Do you have some data to share to show this is true in suburban environments? I live in a very wealthy area, budget is not a problem for the city, the busses are clean and well run. But they're often empty...
Turing_Machine 2y ago
> road infrastructure (eg bus lanes) so they not stuck in traffic Bus lanes aren't going to do anything to help with the real bottleneck in city bus transport: having to stop every couple of blocks to let people on and off.