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The UN has done nothing but downward revisions in the last 10+ years. They consistently overestimate birth rates and underestimate how quickly they are falling
by fred_is_fred 2y ago
The UN has done nothing but downward revisions in the last 10+ years. They consistently overestimate birth rates and underestimate how quickly they are falling especially in the developing countries. This itself is a trend that says the UN is overly optimistic here in terms of population growth and max/max year. The 2019 to 2022 revision went from population max of 10.88B in 2100 to 10.4B in 2086. I didn't find the 2024 data yet but would expect another "our numbers were too high" again.
- lainga 2y ago> This itself is a trend that says the UN is overly optimistic here Who benefits?
- fred_is_fred 2y agoI've been wondering but didn't come up with anything. I don't think the world economy as a whole is ready for a decline. For countries like the US or for example Australia, I think population will not decline due to net immigration, even as the world as whole declines. For the rest though, it cannot be good for an economy.
- tuatoru 2y agoThe very latest 2024 update (not yet on their website) is apparently a small increase, because they expect a slower rate of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. (I think I read about this on the IIASA website.) Time will tell.