> powerful people would rather look like they're ahead than actually do something actually novel. Except China actually has done a lot of novel huge investment

> powerful people would rather look like they're ahead than actually do something actually novel. Except China actually has done a lot of novel huge investments that led to their manufacturing might. If their authoritarian excess weren't beneficial or productive on-net, they wouldn't be the second biggest economy in the world with the largest manufacturing capacity. Likewise, with VC hype, if VC's were wrong more often then not, they wouldn't be trusted with billions to invest, they'd be penniless, and more sound, rational investors would naturally adopt their role in the market. Of course hype is a major part of this, but every groundbreaking technology had a hype cycle, it doesn't mean they ended up being useless. However, even if this is all hype, your previous comment said "nobody is talking about this", which is obviously not the case, unless the stated aim of Chinese manufacturing, Tesla, Figure, Sanctuary AI, Boston Dynamics, the hundreds of AI startups popping up securing unicorn funding, etc. count as no one. Regarding my original thread, I don't believe it is 100% likely to happen, but I feel it's important to be able to map out possible futures clearly so that there is substance to argue against why the premises leading to that future are more/less likely than implied. Simply saying "this is all bullshit, nobody is talking about this, nothing will happen, everything will be fine" is a pleasant thing to think about but it doesn't address the nature of the premise or how things are shaping up.