5 ms·

Signal isn't big enough to play that game. They'll just be blocked from the app store for EU users and their user base in the EU will drop to near zero within

Signal isn't big enough to play that game. They'll just be blocked from the app store for EU users and their user base in the EU will drop to near zero within a year.

issafram 2y ago
You think 99.99% of Signal users are all in the EU?
ggm 2y ago
In the spirit of Erlich/Simons, if you define zero relative to current users, what % do you think will depart, and what does "zero" look like. Hint: I'm taking Simons' role in this: They won't drop to zero.
diego_sandoval 2y ago
I think it would be feasible for Whatsapp, Telegram and Signal to form a coalition that pledges to withdraw from any country or market that tries to pull these shenanigans, such that the sum of them is big enough to play that game. The hardest to convince would be Whatsapp, but I think that Zuckerberg is one of the few big tech CEOs that still has principles, at least sometimes. I think it could happen.
- kelnos 2y ago
  > I think that Zuckerberg is one of the few big tech CEOs that still has principles "Still"? I'm not aware of a time when he's publicly shown any sort of principles.
  - diego_sandoval 2y ago
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36187028 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36187028 Google or Microsoft would just give up data of their users at the first request to avoid a ban. Sure, Meta can't * do it because of E2E, but that alone is much better than what Google does. * without pushing a malicious update.
    - londons_explore 2y ago
      > * without pushing a malicious update. And I believe that is exactly what the court was demanding they do. Push an update to uncloak the users that the court determines should lose their privacy.
tensor 2y ago
"Play that game"? They are not somehow bluffing or threatening this simply to try to change the law. It's a principled stance that they simply cannot provide E2E encrypted chat under such conditions. So either they break their protocol in which case their claimed offer would be a lie, or they leave. Seems like the only choice they have, really. Also, by "leave EU" I'm pretty sure they mean not offer their app in the EU, so yes I think they expect their EU user base to be zero in this scenario.
dylan604 2y ago
Would Signal allow an app to be side loaded? Would it be possible for an Signal-like app to be loaded that would ruin everything for everybody?
- immibis 2y ago
  Android does. Apple doesn't, obviously. Even in the EU where they have to.
  - dylan604 2y ago
    yes yes, we all know this is the obvious answer. so thanks for that and ignoring the actual point of the question
    - tutipop 2y ago
      did you mean to ask if Signal's own infrastructure would geoblock EU users?
troad 2y ago
To my knowledge, Signal makes a grand total of €0 in profit in Europe, or anywhere else for that matter, being a not-for-profit. It is not the purpose of a not-for-profit to grow exponentially. The Signal Foundation's mission is to ensure the continued existence of a secure messenger app. The people in charge of Signal take that mission very seriously, to their great credit. There are already anti-circumvention mechanisms built into Signal to facilitate use in places like China and Iran, so they've shown no interest in compliance where that goes directly contrary to their mission. Should they be removed from the App Store in Europe, I imagine they'll work on making use of the EU's own push to open iOS up for alternative app stores / PWAs. (It's clear that the EU is unhappy with Apple's current take on compliance, so we can expect that to open up further.)
- account42 2y ago
  Doesn't really matter what Signal does. If this goes through then the next push will be to implement the scanning at the OS-level for non-compliant apps. Or just to demand that Android and iOS get the ability to block apps on a government list even if installed outside the app store. Sure, a few hackers (and the criminals) will always have secure communications but you can't win the fight for widespread secure communication against the government's will with technological means.
  - troad 2y ago
    I think this seems like a fairly extreme and unlikely worst case scenario. I'd be sceptical about the EU's ability to actually implement something like this - there are limits to both what American companies are willing to do (e.g. Google leaving China), and what some of the more historically liberal European states are actually willing to tolerate from the EU level (imagine the blow to business confidence). That's not to say that the present proposals aren't already bad enough.

Signal isn't big enough to play that game. They'll just be blocked from the app store for EU users and their user base in the EU will drop to near zero within a year.

issafram 2y ago

You think 99.99% of Signal users are all in the EU?

ggm 2y ago

In the spirit of Erlich/Simons, if you define zero relative to current users, what % do you think will depart, and what does "zero" look like. Hint: I'm taking Simons' role in this: They won't drop to zero.

diego_sandoval 2y ago

I think it would be feasible for Whatsapp, Telegram and Signal to form a coalition that pledges to withdraw from any country or market that tries to pull these shenanigans, such that the sum of them is big enough to play that game. The hardest to convince would be Whatsapp, but I think that Zuckerberg is one of the few big tech CEOs that still has principles, at least sometimes. I think it could happen.

kelnos 2y ago
> I think that Zuckerberg is one of the few big tech CEOs that still has principles "Still"? I'm not aware of a time when he's publicly shown any sort of principles.
- diego_sandoval 2y ago
  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36187028 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36187028 Google or Microsoft would just give up data of their users at the first request to avoid a ban. Sure, Meta can't * do it because of E2E, but that alone is much better than what Google does. * without pushing a malicious update.
  - londons_explore 2y ago
    > * without pushing a malicious update. And I believe that is exactly what the court was demanding they do. Push an update to uncloak the users that the court determines should lose their privacy.

tensor 2y ago

"Play that game"? They are not somehow bluffing or threatening this simply to try to change the law. It's a principled stance that they simply cannot provide E2E encrypted chat under such conditions. So either they break their protocol in which case their claimed offer would be a lie, or they leave. Seems like the only choice they have, really. Also, by "leave EU" I'm pretty sure they mean not offer their app in the EU, so yes I think they expect their EU user base to be zero in this scenario.

dylan604 2y ago

Would Signal allow an app to be side loaded? Would it be possible for an Signal-like app to be loaded that would ruin everything for everybody?

immibis 2y ago
Android does. Apple doesn't, obviously. Even in the EU where they have to.
- dylan604 2y ago
  yes yes, we all know this is the obvious answer. so thanks for that and ignoring the actual point of the question
  - tutipop 2y ago
    did you mean to ask if Signal's own infrastructure would geoblock EU users?

troad 2y ago

To my knowledge, Signal makes a grand total of €0 in profit in Europe, or anywhere else for that matter, being a not-for-profit. It is not the purpose of a not-for-profit to grow exponentially. The Signal Foundation's mission is to ensure the continued existence of a secure messenger app. The people in charge of Signal take that mission very seriously, to their great credit. There are already anti-circumvention mechanisms built into Signal to facilitate use in places like China and Iran, so they've shown no interest in compliance where that goes directly contrary to their mission. Should they be removed from the App Store in Europe, I imagine they'll work on making use of the EU's own push to open iOS up for alternative app stores / PWAs. (It's clear that the EU is unhappy with Apple's current take on compliance, so we can expect that to open up further.)

account42 2y ago
Doesn't really matter what Signal does. If this goes through then the next push will be to implement the scanning at the OS-level for non-compliant apps. Or just to demand that Android and iOS get the ability to block apps on a government list even if installed outside the app store. Sure, a few hackers (and the criminals) will always have secure communications but you can't win the fight for widespread secure communication against the government's will with technological means.
- troad 2y ago
  I think this seems like a fairly extreme and unlikely worst case scenario. I'd be sceptical about the EU's ability to actually implement something like this - there are limits to both what American companies are willing to do (e.g. Google leaving China), and what some of the more historically liberal European states are actually willing to tolerate from the EU level (imagine the blow to business confidence). That's not to say that the present proposals aren't already bad enough.