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A 2x improvement in energy density would make EVs accessible to everyone without question. What remains to be seen is whether it can be produced at a competitiv

A 2x improvement in energy density would make EVs accessible to everyone without question. What remains to be seen is whether it can be produced at a competitive cost. My guess is not for a long while.

alephnerd 2y ago
> My guess is not for a long while. Toyota and Idemitsu Kosan (part of the same METI grant that TDK got for SSB development 20 years ago) are going to commercialize Solid-State Batteries for EVs by 2028 [0][1] The new Toyota Battery factory in NC is part of that push [2] [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-roll-out-solid-state-battery-evs-couple-years-india-executive-says-2024-01-11/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-idemitsu-join-hands-mass-produce-all-solid-state-batteries-2023-10-12/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota... [2] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-invest-8-bln-north-carolina-battery-plant-2023-10-31/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota...
KennyBlanken 2y ago
The problem isn't energy density, nor competitive cost. Multiple manufacturers make EVs that are price-competitive with ICEs and in some cases the same vehicle model with an ICE. The problem is mostly driver mindset. You just can't convince them that a)most of their charging will happen at home while the car sits in their garage / driveway b)When they do need to fast charge, the 20 minutes it takes for a number of current EVs to get to 80% charge isn't much longer than what you'd spend at a highway service area by the time you get done with fueling the car, going to the bathroom, chasing down everyone who was in the car, maybe buying a drink and snack, etc c)For the rare occasion they need a vehicle with more range or are going into an area without good charging infrastructure, they can rent a car. This is how things are done in Europe - you take public transit most of the time, but for a trip where public transit isn't convenient, you rent - often times after taking a train to get closer to the area you're going to be in. Drivers still buy giant 7-passenger SUVs and hulking pickups that spend most of their service life with one, maybe two people in them and little or no cargo. Making car rentals much less of a hassle would help, as would mandating maximum passenger vehicle heights, and tax penalties on noncommercial vehicles over a certain weight.
- bangaladore 2y ago
  Sure, but as someone who has personally owned two EVs, and whose family owns more, 2x real range is a huge deal. Depending on where you live (speed limits, weather, driving habits, topology, etc...) impacts real-world range greatly. If you drive 80 mph on a flat freeway you might actually get 50-70% of the rated range. That brings a respectable 300 rated miles down to somewhere around 200 miles or less. If the rated range was 400 for a cheaper vehicle and 600-700 for premium vehicles, almost all range issues would be solved overnight. People buy cars thinking about the worst case, not the realistic or average one? What if I go on that trip across the US next year?
  - ComputerGuru 2y ago
    > If you drive 80 mph on a flat freeway In Chicago (Pareto optimal for flattest/biggest metro area in the USA), we have two “going speeds” on the highway: 5 mph and 85+ mph. I drive fast (not going to go on the record here, but use your imagination - I mainly buy German cars that excel on the Autobahn) and I’m routinely only in the top quartile if I’m not in an actual hurry. (I know EVs are much better in stop-and-go traffic than ICE but I can’t imagine 5mph with five-to-ten second bursts of 30 mph is great for the range, either.)
    - HDThoreaun 2y ago
      Chicago is easily one of the best places to own an EV for one simple reason. There are no decent road trip destinations. Upper peninsula is the closest one Id consider and at that point why not just fly somewhere? I gave up on road trips and just bought a shitty condo in slc, works much better and the travel time is lower.
- deergomoo 2y ago
  > most of their charging will happen at home while the car sits in their garage / driveway This is a very different story around the world. Something like ~60%~ [it’s actually 35%, I got it backwards] of UK homes have no off-street parking. You'd need streetside chargers or built into lampposts, which is being trialled in some areas but is very small scale and almost certainly would not be as cheap as charging via your home's electricity. > the 20 minutes it takes for a number of current EVs to get to 80% charge isn't much longer than what you'd spend at a highway service area by the time you get done with fueling the car, going to the bathroom, chasing down everyone who was in the car, maybe buying a drink and snack The problem with this is that it assumes the car will always need a break at the same I do. That works if I can charge easily at home and will only need to fast charge on long journeys, but as I said above it's just not practical for many people. It's also best case scenario insofar as it assumes both that your car can charge quickly, and that you have close-by access to a fully functioning fast charger. It's not a huge hurdle (and I do believe that by say 2034 this stuff won't be a concern at all), but the additional planning required is more than a lot of people are willing to consider, and I don't think they're wrong in thinking that. Especially because even now electric cars are still very much out of price range for lots of people (again, going by UK prices and salaries).

alephnerd 2y ago

> My guess is not for a long while. Toyota and Idemitsu Kosan (part of the same METI grant that TDK got for SSB development 20 years ago) are going to commercialize Solid-State Batteries for EVs by 2028 [0][1] The new Toyota Battery factory in NC is part of that push [2] [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-roll-out-solid-state-battery-evs-couple-years-india-executive-says-2024-01-11/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-idemitsu-join-hands-mass-produce-all-solid-state-batteries-2023-10-12/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota... [2] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-invest-8-bln-north-carolina-battery-plant-2023-10-31/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota...

KennyBlanken 2y ago

The problem isn't energy density, nor competitive cost. Multiple manufacturers make EVs that are price-competitive with ICEs and in some cases the same vehicle model with an ICE. The problem is mostly driver mindset. You just can't convince them that a)most of their charging will happen at home while the car sits in their garage / driveway b)When they do need to fast charge, the 20 minutes it takes for a number of current EVs to get to 80% charge isn't much longer than what you'd spend at a highway service area by the time you get done with fueling the car, going to the bathroom, chasing down everyone who was in the car, maybe buying a drink and snack, etc c)For the rare occasion they need a vehicle with more range or are going into an area without good charging infrastructure, they can rent a car. This is how things are done in Europe - you take public transit most of the time, but for a trip where public transit isn't convenient, you rent - often times after taking a train to get closer to the area you're going to be in. Drivers still buy giant 7-passenger SUVs and hulking pickups that spend most of their service life with one, maybe two people in them and little or no cargo. Making car rentals much less of a hassle would help, as would mandating maximum passenger vehicle heights, and tax penalties on noncommercial vehicles over a certain weight.

bangaladore 2y ago
Sure, but as someone who has personally owned two EVs, and whose family owns more, 2x real range is a huge deal. Depending on where you live (speed limits, weather, driving habits, topology, etc...) impacts real-world range greatly. If you drive 80 mph on a flat freeway you might actually get 50-70% of the rated range. That brings a respectable 300 rated miles down to somewhere around 200 miles or less. If the rated range was 400 for a cheaper vehicle and 600-700 for premium vehicles, almost all range issues would be solved overnight. People buy cars thinking about the worst case, not the realistic or average one? What if I go on that trip across the US next year?
- ComputerGuru 2y ago
  > If you drive 80 mph on a flat freeway In Chicago (Pareto optimal for flattest/biggest metro area in the USA), we have two “going speeds” on the highway: 5 mph and 85+ mph. I drive fast (not going to go on the record here, but use your imagination - I mainly buy German cars that excel on the Autobahn) and I’m routinely only in the top quartile if I’m not in an actual hurry. (I know EVs are much better in stop-and-go traffic than ICE but I can’t imagine 5mph with five-to-ten second bursts of 30 mph is great for the range, either.)
  - HDThoreaun 2y ago
    Chicago is easily one of the best places to own an EV for one simple reason. There are no decent road trip destinations. Upper peninsula is the closest one Id consider and at that point why not just fly somewhere? I gave up on road trips and just bought a shitty condo in slc, works much better and the travel time is lower.
deergomoo 2y ago
> most of their charging will happen at home while the car sits in their garage / driveway This is a very different story around the world. Something like ~60%~ [it’s actually 35%, I got it backwards] of UK homes have no off-street parking. You'd need streetside chargers or built into lampposts, which is being trialled in some areas but is very small scale and almost certainly would not be as cheap as charging via your home's electricity. > the 20 minutes it takes for a number of current EVs to get to 80% charge isn't much longer than what you'd spend at a highway service area by the time you get done with fueling the car, going to the bathroom, chasing down everyone who was in the car, maybe buying a drink and snack The problem with this is that it assumes the car will always need a break at the same I do. That works if I can charge easily at home and will only need to fast charge on long journeys, but as I said above it's just not practical for many people. It's also best case scenario insofar as it assumes both that your car can charge quickly, and that you have close-by access to a fully functioning fast charger. It's not a huge hurdle (and I do believe that by say 2034 this stuff won't be a concern at all), but the additional planning required is more than a lot of people are willing to consider, and I don't think they're wrong in thinking that. Especially because even now electric cars are still very much out of price range for lots of people (again, going by UK prices and salaries).