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Most of the polls have changed their methodologies: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/ https://w

Most of the polls have changed their methodologies: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/ https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-po... It's possible they still have major problems, but they've had multiple elections to learn from their mistakes at this point.

rayiner 2y ago
The problem is they’re shooting and a moving target. Polls all perform various demographic adjustments. In 2016 they underestimated Trump’s support among white non-college educated folks. They fixed that for 2020, but still underestimated Trump’s support. Now, polls are showing a large drop in support for Biden among black, hispanic, and young voters, and a significant shift to Trump. A recent poll showed Biden’s support among black people in Michigan has dropped 20 points since 2020, with Trump picking up some those disaffected voters. Polls have also consistently shown Trump pulling even with young voters. Do the top-line results fully reflect those shifts? I think various scenarios are possible. But I think the outcome that’s somewhat more likely than other possible outcomes is that pollsters underestimate the degree to which Trump-leaning minorities and young people will turn out, and will underestimate Trump’s support again by a few points.