4 ms·
That's a pretty big assumption. We can also assume they do not get much better and extrapolate from that, and I think that it's responsible to analyze both case
by __loam 2y ago
That's a pretty big assumption. We can also assume they do not get much better and extrapolate from that, and I think that it's responsible to analyze both cases and try to ascertain which is more likely.
56% of the American economy is also based on intellectual property so it's also a big claim that the existing status quo will have nothing to say about large tech firms trying to displace that, if it is even good enough to do that.
- mgraczyk 2y agoIt's not an assumption, it's an expected value computation. You have to choose a distribution of expected outcomes in terms of future capabilities. Nearly all outcomes that are plausible to me come out with Nvidia worth at least 50% of what's it's worth today.
- __loam 2y agoRaw improvements to computation aren't a guarantee that LLMs improve.