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One huge oversight in this analysis is the assumption that LLMs will not get better. Imagine there is a 10% chance that LLM capabilities increase so significant
by mgraczyk 2y ago
One huge oversight in this analysis is the assumption that LLMs will not get better. Imagine there is a 10% chance that LLM capabilities increase so significantly in the next 5 years that a significant portion (say 1%) of the economy will be automated by them. That's enough to make Nvidia a multi trillion dollar company.
- __loam 2y agoThat's a pretty big assumption. We can also assume they do not get much better and extrapolate from that, and I think that it's responsible to analyze both cases and try to ascertain which is more likely. 56% of the American economy is also based on intellectual property so it's also a big claim that the existing status quo will have nothing to say about large tech firms trying to displace that, if it is even good enough to do that.
- mgraczyk 2y agoIt's not an assumption, it's an expected value computation. You have to choose a distribution of expected outcomes in terms of future capabilities. Nearly all outcomes that are plausible to me come out with Nvidia worth at least 50% of what's it's worth today.
- __loam 2y agoRaw improvements to computation aren't a guarantee that LLMs improve.
- ganeshkrishnan 2y ago>That's enough to make Nvidia a multi trillion dollar company. There are tons of chip companies breathing down it's neck. AMD dropped the ball but Huawei Ascend chips are already making a dent and NVIDIA had to drop prices in China. Rest of the industry will start eating into NVIDIA as the market cap grows.