4 ms·

> To have him actually be up in the polls—something he never did nationally in the aggregate in 2016 or 2020—is signaling landslide. That’s certainly possible,

> To have him actually be up in the polls—something he never did nationally in the aggregate in 2016 or 2020—is signaling landslide. That’s certainly possible, but another explanation is that the polls are trying to correct for this and have over corrected.

rayiner 2y ago
If they were making such changes I’d suspect Nate Silver or Nate Cohn would write about that. I think the polls will still possibly be off, but I wouldn’t bet money that they will overestimate Trump’s support this time. I think this time Trump’s growing support among Hispanic, black, and young voters will mess up the demographic adjustment again (but in a different way than in 2016 and 2020).
- nitwit005 2y ago
  Most of the polls have changed their methodologies: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/ https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-po... It's possible they still have major problems, but they've had multiple elections to learn from their mistakes at this point.
  - rayiner 2y ago
    The problem is they’re shooting and a moving target. Polls all perform various demographic adjustments. In 2016 they underestimated Trump’s support among white non-college educated folks. They fixed that for 2020, but still underestimated Trump’s support. Now, polls are showing a large drop in support for Biden among black, hispanic, and young voters, and a significant shift to Trump. A recent poll showed Biden’s support among black people in Michigan has dropped 20 points since 2020, with Trump picking up some those disaffected voters. Polls have also consistently shown Trump pulling even with young voters. Do the top-line results fully reflect those shifts? I think various scenarios are possible. But I think the outcome that’s somewhat more likely than other possible outcomes is that pollsters underestimate the degree to which Trump-leaning minorities and young people will turn out, and will underestimate Trump’s support again by a few points.

rayiner 2y ago

If they were making such changes I’d suspect Nate Silver or Nate Cohn would write about that. I think the polls will still possibly be off, but I wouldn’t bet money that they will overestimate Trump’s support this time. I think this time Trump’s growing support among Hispanic, black, and young voters will mess up the demographic adjustment again (but in a different way than in 2016 and 2020).

nitwit005 2y ago
Most of the polls have changed their methodologies: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/ https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-po... It's possible they still have major problems, but they've had multiple elections to learn from their mistakes at this point.
- rayiner 2y ago
  The problem is they’re shooting and a moving target. Polls all perform various demographic adjustments. In 2016 they underestimated Trump’s support among white non-college educated folks. They fixed that for 2020, but still underestimated Trump’s support. Now, polls are showing a large drop in support for Biden among black, hispanic, and young voters, and a significant shift to Trump. A recent poll showed Biden’s support among black people in Michigan has dropped 20 points since 2020, with Trump picking up some those disaffected voters. Polls have also consistently shown Trump pulling even with young voters. Do the top-line results fully reflect those shifts? I think various scenarios are possible. But I think the outcome that’s somewhat more likely than other possible outcomes is that pollsters underestimate the degree to which Trump-leaning minorities and young people will turn out, and will underestimate Trump’s support again by a few points.