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FWIW, Trump was given worse odds than Hilary much closer to the election using the 538 model (which is similar in principle). Not a knock on these projections,

FWIW, Trump was given worse odds than Hilary much closer to the election using the 538 model (which is similar in principle). Not a knock on these projections, but just a reminder that even if a lead is statistically significant, the size of the lead matters. 66% is hardly a fait accompli, especially five months out. That said, as Nate Silver has said (paraphrasing), 16% probability sounds unlikely until you're playing Russian Roulette.

softwaredoug 2y ago
At some point the current incarnation of the GOP will have power - with or without Trump, 2024 or later. It’s just sadly something that’s going to happen.
- e40 2y ago
  And they’ve literally told us everything they’re going to do. That makes watching this all the more painful.
- squidbeak 2y ago
  Agreed. Every election it loses in the meantime will amp up resentment and aggravate the USA's political dysfunction. I think of it as a counterpart of Brexit, which had similar populist drivers, and was something the country just had to get out of its system, despite the steep attendant economic and social costs.
  - ta1243 2y ago
    The brexit referendum was supposed to answer the question once and for all, and stop the tory party split. Instead we have a split down the middle, and the split is far further right than it was in the Major/Redwood days of the 90s. 8 years on we're seeing the tory party massively damaged, an outside chance of FPTP meaning they're neither the second largest party in seats or in votes. There's a crazy situation where half the tory voters are literally voting for a company run by Nigel Farage. I suspect 90% of the voters would struggle to name anyone else in that company (it's not a party the way the tories or greens are). Brexit didn't solve the problem, there's always something else to blame. One of the most pivotal moments in UK political history was Farage surviving the 2010 plane crash. There's just nobody else as large on that side of the aisle that can operate outside of the party structure (including Johnson)
tim333 2y ago
Also FWIW the Keys To The White House guy who predicted Trump's win and most elections thinks Biden will win this time. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtman-prediction-presidential-election https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtm...
deleted 2y ago
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softwaredoug 2y ago

At some point the current incarnation of the GOP will have power - with or without Trump, 2024 or later. It’s just sadly something that’s going to happen.

e40 2y ago
And they’ve literally told us everything they’re going to do. That makes watching this all the more painful.
squidbeak 2y ago
Agreed. Every election it loses in the meantime will amp up resentment and aggravate the USA's political dysfunction. I think of it as a counterpart of Brexit, which had similar populist drivers, and was something the country just had to get out of its system, despite the steep attendant economic and social costs.
- ta1243 2y ago
  The brexit referendum was supposed to answer the question once and for all, and stop the tory party split. Instead we have a split down the middle, and the split is far further right than it was in the Major/Redwood days of the 90s. 8 years on we're seeing the tory party massively damaged, an outside chance of FPTP meaning they're neither the second largest party in seats or in votes. There's a crazy situation where half the tory voters are literally voting for a company run by Nigel Farage. I suspect 90% of the voters would struggle to name anyone else in that company (it's not a party the way the tories or greens are). Brexit didn't solve the problem, there's always something else to blame. One of the most pivotal moments in UK political history was Farage surviving the 2010 plane crash. There's just nobody else as large on that side of the aisle that can operate outside of the party structure (including Johnson)

tim333 2y ago

Also FWIW the Keys To The White House guy who predicted Trump's win and most elections thinks Biden will win this time. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtman-prediction-presidential-election https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtm...

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]