This sounds like a more complicated (and simultaneously under-analyzed) version of the Princess Bride iocaine powder scene. Assigning probabilities doesn't rea

This sounds like a more complicated (and simultaneously under-analyzed) version of the Princess Bride iocaine powder scene. Assigning probabilities doesn't really make any sense in this context, since you're relying on the trustworthiness of your information as well as the assumption that the game is fair and/or winnable. Besides that, I would expect most people to make their decisions based on their interactions with the host (body language, tone, etc), although there's potential for trying to analyze psychology of the host.