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There’s a lesson in there for the West. Russia backs down if you don’t respond weakly to probes like this. What are they going to do? Threaten nukes or some ot

There’s a lesson in there for the West. Russia backs down if you don’t respond weakly to probes like this. What are they going to do? Threaten nukes or some other retaliation for the 100th time?

hammyhavoc 2y ago
Every time I see someone encourage escalation like this, I can only cringe.
- VK538FY 2y ago
  Same here. In my opinion, it's a combination of mimicry of the pro-war western press (with its wildly optimistic faith in US military power) and an incomplete understanding of the history behind certain events like the genesis and resolution of WWII and the dissolution of the USSR.
- mopsi 2y ago
  It is literally the opposite of escalation. Show strength and shoot down the intruder like Turkey did and Russia will send a delegation to apologize. Or show cowardice and they'll continue violating your border and endangering civilian airliners while their diplomats openly mock you. Russia responds to strength and those who deny it have not learned anything from history.
  - rainworld 2y ago
    >like Turkey did and Russia will send a delegation to apologize Which is not at all what happend. Turkey-Russia relations nosedived for a couple years and as a result quite a few Turks and Turkish allies died in Syria. And if anyone ended up apologizing over the incident it was Erdoğan. Wait, Putin did apologize, later. “Oops.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Russian_Air_Force_Al-Bab_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Russian_Air_Force_Al-Bab_... And again: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Balyun_airstrikes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Balyun_airstrikes
  - hammyhavoc 2y ago
    ... have you seen Ukraine? They keep on coming, despite Ukraine showing plenty of "strength" by your measure. Escalation leads to war and more unnecessary death and destruction.
    - mopsi 2y ago
      Ukraine alone is too weak by any measure, but the way Biden acted before the war was escalatory. For example, he announced that "there will be no American boots on the ground" instead of leaving it at least ambigious. This lowered the risk for Russians who could be sure that US forces would not get directly involved. It was like an open invitation to attack Ukraine. Had he used all available means to show that the US would get involved (eg paradropping 82nd Airborne into Hostomel for exercises with Ukrainians), the war could've been averted. Ukraine is an excellent case study of how Russians act. They have used every "de-escalatory window" carved out for them to climb deeper into Ukraine instead of getting out. Refusals and delays in supporting Ukraine with tanks, artillery, air defense and other equipment have only escalated the war. Every ingenious "de-descalation" tactic has only made things worse, whereas "escalatory" steps like providing Patriots to Ukraine have reduced unnecessary death and destruction. It is another failure to learn from history, combined with irrational (!) risk aversity.
      - hammyhavoc 2y ago
        First, you say to "shoot down the intruder" and not show cowardice. Ukraine has been doing exactly that, yet Russia continues its aggression. This clearly demonstrates that simply showing military strength does not necessarily deter an aggressor. Let's address your claim of "cowardice" in Ukraine. Ukraine has shown immense resilience and strength in defending its sovereignty. If you believe that Ukraine's response has been weak, please provide concrete examples of this supposed cowardice. We'd all love to hear about it. You then argue that Ukraine is "too weak" on its own and imply that Sweden is in a better position. https://armedforces.eu/compare/country_Ukraine_vs_Sweden https://armedforces.eu/compare/country_Ukraine_vs_Sweden However, if we compare the military capabilities of Ukraine and Sweden, it’s clear that Ukraine's military is significantly larger and more experienced due to ongoing conflict. If Ukraine, with its considerable military force, struggles to deter Russia, how can we expect a smaller country like Sweden to do better without causing a larger conflict? Regarding Biden's pre-war actions, you claim his clear stance on not deploying American boots on the ground was an open invitation to Russia. Yet, history shows that ambiguity can lead to miscalculations and unintended escalations. Look at the lead-up to World War I, where a series of misunderstood intentions and alliances turned a regional conflict into a global war. Or the Cuban Missile Crisis, where clear communication and diplomacy prevented a nuclear disaster. Ambiguity isn't always a strength; it can often be a dangerous gamble. Your argument suggests that being cautious is "irrational risk aversity." This is without even getting into Sweden now being a NATO member and the potential for massive escalation like nuclear war. It seems you haven't fully grasped the lessons of history. Escalation leads to more unnecessary death and destruction. Advocating for it without considering the complex repercussions shows a dangerous lack of understanding. Perhaps you're too happy about various economies being propped up by the military-industrial complex to care?

There’s a lesson in there for the West. Russia backs down if you don’t respond weakly to probes like this. What are they going to do? Threaten nukes or some other retaliation for the 100th time?

hammyhavoc 2y ago

Every time I see someone encourage escalation like this, I can only cringe.

VK538FY 2y ago
Same here. In my opinion, it's a combination of mimicry of the pro-war western press (with its wildly optimistic faith in US military power) and an incomplete understanding of the history behind certain events like the genesis and resolution of WWII and the dissolution of the USSR.
mopsi 2y ago
It is literally the opposite of escalation. Show strength and shoot down the intruder like Turkey did and Russia will send a delegation to apologize. Or show cowardice and they'll continue violating your border and endangering civilian airliners while their diplomats openly mock you. Russia responds to strength and those who deny it have not learned anything from history.
- rainworld 2y ago
  >like Turkey did and Russia will send a delegation to apologize Which is not at all what happend. Turkey-Russia relations nosedived for a couple years and as a result quite a few Turks and Turkish allies died in Syria. And if anyone ended up apologizing over the incident it was Erdoğan. Wait, Putin did apologize, later. “Oops.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Russian_Air_Force_Al-Bab_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Russian_Air_Force_Al-Bab_... And again: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Balyun_airstrikes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Balyun_airstrikes
- hammyhavoc 2y ago
  ... have you seen Ukraine? They keep on coming, despite Ukraine showing plenty of "strength" by your measure. Escalation leads to war and more unnecessary death and destruction.
  - mopsi 2y ago
    Ukraine alone is too weak by any measure, but the way Biden acted before the war was escalatory. For example, he announced that "there will be no American boots on the ground" instead of leaving it at least ambigious. This lowered the risk for Russians who could be sure that US forces would not get directly involved. It was like an open invitation to attack Ukraine. Had he used all available means to show that the US would get involved (eg paradropping 82nd Airborne into Hostomel for exercises with Ukrainians), the war could've been averted. Ukraine is an excellent case study of how Russians act. They have used every "de-escalatory window" carved out for them to climb deeper into Ukraine instead of getting out. Refusals and delays in supporting Ukraine with tanks, artillery, air defense and other equipment have only escalated the war. Every ingenious "de-descalation" tactic has only made things worse, whereas "escalatory" steps like providing Patriots to Ukraine have reduced unnecessary death and destruction. It is another failure to learn from history, combined with irrational (!) risk aversity.
    - hammyhavoc 2y ago
      First, you say to "shoot down the intruder" and not show cowardice. Ukraine has been doing exactly that, yet Russia continues its aggression. This clearly demonstrates that simply showing military strength does not necessarily deter an aggressor. Let's address your claim of "cowardice" in Ukraine. Ukraine has shown immense resilience and strength in defending its sovereignty. If you believe that Ukraine's response has been weak, please provide concrete examples of this supposed cowardice. We'd all love to hear about it. You then argue that Ukraine is "too weak" on its own and imply that Sweden is in a better position. https://armedforces.eu/compare/country_Ukraine_vs_Sweden https://armedforces.eu/compare/country_Ukraine_vs_Sweden However, if we compare the military capabilities of Ukraine and Sweden, it’s clear that Ukraine's military is significantly larger and more experienced due to ongoing conflict. If Ukraine, with its considerable military force, struggles to deter Russia, how can we expect a smaller country like Sweden to do better without causing a larger conflict? Regarding Biden's pre-war actions, you claim his clear stance on not deploying American boots on the ground was an open invitation to Russia. Yet, history shows that ambiguity can lead to miscalculations and unintended escalations. Look at the lead-up to World War I, where a series of misunderstood intentions and alliances turned a regional conflict into a global war. Or the Cuban Missile Crisis, where clear communication and diplomacy prevented a nuclear disaster. Ambiguity isn't always a strength; it can often be a dangerous gamble. Your argument suggests that being cautious is "irrational risk aversity." This is without even getting into Sweden now being a NATO member and the potential for massive escalation like nuclear war. It seems you haven't fully grasped the lessons of history. Escalation leads to more unnecessary death and destruction. Advocating for it without considering the complex repercussions shows a dangerous lack of understanding. Perhaps you're too happy about various economies being propped up by the military-industrial complex to care?