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And that’s not how long term bookmaking works, as you’ve proposed a wager where I am guaranteed to lose at least the time value of my money on either outcome, a
by yawpitch 2y ago
And that’s not how long term bookmaking works, as you’ve proposed a wager where I am guaranteed to lose at least the time value of my money on either outcome, and I’m extremely confident I’d lose exactly and only that. But I’ll happily put down $100 in today’s money if a win in 30 years returns a 10% profit over inflation, on the conditions that the probe must be launched from the Earth’s surface after the book is made, that it must overtake Voyager 1’s then distance inside 30 years, and that it must be actively transmitting at least one piece of meaningful local-condition scientific data back under its own power (for validation of ranging purposes, at least) at that time.