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Don't underestimate how dogma of social consensus can stifle otherwise innovative techniques, regardless whether they are proven effective or not.
by neonsunset 2y ago
Don't underestimate how dogma of social consensus can stifle otherwise innovative techniques, regardless whether they are proven effective or not.
- cjensen 2y agoThere's no "dogma" or "social consensus" here. The authors of the paper simply failed to do their homework adequately. Earthquake Prediction is filled with cranks. To deal with the issue, there is a neutral set of criteria for "how to test a prediction theory" which involves making predictions in advance with a clear description of what types of events match the predictions and likelihood of event. Geologists can then compare a series of predictions and their outcomes to what would be expected based on historic patterns. Math then allows one to determine if the prediction theory is better than random guessing. No predictions have yet been better than random guessing.