I think OP means that the new big swingers like Claude Opus, Gemini Ultra, Llama 3 are still not beating GPT-4, which has been around quite a while. Also for c

I think OP means that the new big swingers like Claude Opus, Gemini Ultra, Llama 3 are still not beating GPT-4, which has been around quite a while. Also for comparison, GPT-2 was in 2019. GPT-3 in 2020. ChatGPT (3.5) was late 2022. GPT-4 in early 2023. GPT-4o was in mid 2024. I think some people drew an exponential graph from the rapid release of 3.5 to 4. But progress stalled a little on GPT-3, which was the most groundbreaking thing in AI in decades. ChatGPT was just a dumbed down version of GPT-3, designed for the public. GPT-4 was also groundbreaking. Depending on how we connect the dots, we'd get GPT-5 from OpenAI in 2026 or later. But seeing how fast the competition is catching up, we'd expect someone else to surpass OpenAI by 2025?