I think the idea behind the "10-20 year" timeframe is that that's how long current technological changes will take to propagate into social & economic changes,

I think the idea behind the "10-20 year" timeframe is that that's how long current technological changes will take to propagate into social & economic changes, like how HTTP was invented in 1989 but we didn't get e-commerce until 1995 or social networking until 2002. LLMs dramatically reduce the price of bullshit. It follows that they'll likely reduce the value of bullshit too, but we don't know to what extent or how that'll affect the organization of the economy until entrepreneurs generate vast bullshit factories and counterparties start adjusting their behavior to adapt to it. A huge swath of the economy runs on bullshit, from media to PR to sales to venture capital to politics. How these industries are structured will likely change when writing vast quantities of truthy-enough-to-be-convincing text becomes insanely cheap.