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Facebook Will Disappear by 2020

10 points by kenhty 14y ago

Craiggybear 14y ago
I think its a fairly safe bet to say quite a few things will disappear by 2020.
technoslut 14y ago
The title of the article is somewhat misleading. Facebook will likely encounter monetization problems as the supremacy of mobile apps over the web continues but it doesn't mean they will just "disappear". If Facebook disappears like Yahoo is doing, someone is going to have to come up with a disruptive solution (like Google did in search). Right now that option doesn't exist. There certainly will be web companies that won't make the transition but Facebook seems to be in the best position to do so. The vast amount of information that they have on their users makes it so.
va_coder 14y ago
You have to take everything a hedge fund trader says with a grain of salt. These guys are making bets both upwards and downwards on the same day. For all I know they've got a program that detects when this article hits the web and that triggers a trade, and then an hour later their program triggers another trade.
- thematt 14y ago
  Absolutely right. In the case of the short-sellers, it's well known these guys flood the media with fake rumors in the hope it triggers a selloff.
abraxasz 14y ago
Ok, so basically the very deep and smart analysis consists in one argument: Facebook is a website, so there's no way it's ever going to become a mobile company. Besides the shallowness of this argument, I think it makes two assumptions that are not justified: - Since no company has succeeded in transitioning from one era to the other, no company in the future will ever succeed. The premise is debatable (Is Google really a failure?), but I think that the conclusion is flat out wrong. - The next generation of internet companies will be mobile, and the only way forward for facebook is to go mobile. Well, mobile is obviously one way forward, but is it the only one? Who knows what facebook is going to come up with. Anyway, I'm not sure that the article brings anything interesting..
joshuahedlund 14y ago
The article may make some good points, but I refuse to give page views to arrogant link-bait "Contrarian Event X will Happen By Year Y" titles.
Turing_Machine 14y ago
It's probably a safe bet that any web-based service will disappear by 2020, or at least change so much that it's completely unrecognizable.
- 27182818284 14y ago
  I've always found HTTP and HTML limiting. I know that might be blasphemy to say, but it seems like we've only put duct tape on duct tape, even with advancements like HTML5.
  - quotemstr 14y ago
    Elaborate?
deleted 14y ago
[deleted]
27182818284 14y ago
Well, I highly suspect Google won't be the same as it is now by 2020 either. That isn't saying much. Part of reaching a so-called technological singularity involves very fast changes.

10 points by kenhty 14y ago

I think its a fairly safe bet to say quite a few things will disappear by 2020.

The title of the article is somewhat misleading. Facebook will likely encounter monetization problems as the supremacy of mobile apps over the web continues but it doesn't mean they will just "disappear". If Facebook disappears like Yahoo is doing, someone is going to have to come up with a disruptive solution (like Google did in search). Right now that option doesn't exist. There certainly will be web companies that won't make the transition but Facebook seems to be in the best position to do so. The vast amount of information that they have on their users makes it so.

va_coder 14y ago

You have to take everything a hedge fund trader says with a grain of salt. These guys are making bets both upwards and downwards on the same day. For all I know they've got a program that detects when this article hits the web and that triggers a trade, and then an hour later their program triggers another trade.

thematt 14y ago
Absolutely right. In the case of the short-sellers, it's well known these guys flood the media with fake rumors in the hope it triggers a selloff.

abraxasz 14y ago

Ok, so basically the very deep and smart analysis consists in one argument: Facebook is a website, so there's no way it's ever going to become a mobile company. Besides the shallowness of this argument, I think it makes two assumptions that are not justified: - Since no company has succeeded in transitioning from one era to the other, no company in the future will ever succeed. The premise is debatable (Is Google really a failure?), but I think that the conclusion is flat out wrong. - The next generation of internet companies will be mobile, and the only way forward for facebook is to go mobile. Well, mobile is obviously one way forward, but is it the only one? Who knows what facebook is going to come up with. Anyway, I'm not sure that the article brings anything interesting..

joshuahedlund 14y ago

The article may make some good points, but I refuse to give page views to arrogant link-bait "Contrarian Event X will Happen By Year Y" titles.

Turing_Machine 14y ago

It's probably a safe bet that any web-based service will disappear by 2020, or at least change so much that it's completely unrecognizable.

27182818284 14y ago
I've always found HTTP and HTML limiting. I know that might be blasphemy to say, but it seems like we've only put duct tape on duct tape, even with advancements like HTML5.
- quotemstr 14y ago
  Elaborate?

deleted 14y ago

[deleted]

27182818284 14y ago

Well, I highly suspect Google won't be the same as it is now by 2020 either. That isn't saying much. Part of reaching a so-called technological singularity involves very fast changes.