3 ms·
> If you expand the time frame to 10-20 years This feels like a lot of "20 years away" type predictions. There needs to be some sort of step change in the tech
by ch4s3 2y ago
> If you expand the time frame to 10-20 years
This feels like a lot of "20 years away" type predictions. There needs to be some sort of step change in the technology, and perhaps more than one or on more than one front to make this possible but its far enough away that 20 years feels like a safe bet.
When people say this about LLM based AIs, I wonder how they imagine text prediction making those step changes. Is your thinking that text prediction is generalization enough that doing more of it better, faster, and on scaled hardware is sufficient to hit a tipping point?
- nostrademons 2y agoI think the idea behind the "10-20 year" timeframe is that that's how long current technological changes will take to propagate into social & economic changes, like how HTTP was invented in 1989 but we didn't get e-commerce until 1995 or social networking until 2002. LLMs dramatically reduce the price of bullshit. It follows that they'll likely reduce the value of bullshit too, but we don't know to what extent or how that'll affect the organization of the economy until entrepreneurs generate vast bullshit factories and counterparties start adjusting their behavior to adapt to it. A huge swath of the economy runs on bullshit, from media to PR to sales to venture capital to politics. How these industries are structured will likely change when writing vast quantities of truthy-enough-to-be-convincing text becomes insanely cheap.