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The reason is because people have stopped buying iPhones every year. Apple has been priced like a growth stock for a very long time but their revenues have stop

The reason is because people have stopped buying iPhones every year. Apple has been priced like a growth stock for a very long time but their revenues have stopped growing! (Seriously, look at their earnings reports) Now compare to Nvidia, their stock has been on an AI related run because their revenues have been MASSIVELY increasing over the past year, because they sell the most advanced chips for training and inferencing the most complex models. Apple may be “doing AI” now, but it’s for consumer products, they’re not selling enterprise AI services nor are they selling the actual chips needed to train and inference. Also, I have major doubts as to whether any of the Apple AI announcements are going to drive higher iPhone sales. There will be tech evangelists who buy a new iPhone for the AI features but the bulk of users are folk like my parents, who use their phone for calling, messaging, and taking photos. The only thing they ever noticed with new phones was either it was: 1: better camera 2: better/bigger screen 3: really obviously faster The last few phones have been indistinguishable in terms of screen, performance, or camera, and my own personal iPhone cycle went from every year or every other year, to now roughly every 3/4 years (and I’m an engineer).

pbronez 2y ago
Yeah. I’ve been planning to upgrade from my 12pro this fall, and I’m mostly excited to get better optical zoom and trash my lightning cables. I do think that Siri’s Generative AI upgrade (which is how I think of this whole Apple Intelligence thing) might be significant enough to change the smart phone as a segment. There are so many things that I feel Siri should be able to do, but it just can’t. Maybe this unlocks those use cases. If it does, that’s a major incentive for me to increase my investment/reliance on the Apple ecosystem. I’ll use the calendar and mail apps if it means Siri has all that context. I’ll upgrade devices to get the same answers with less perceptual lag. If we’re focused on hardware sales, I’d be interested in an Apple version of the Rabbit R1. That thing is almost a modernized iPod Touch - great device for kids you don’t trust with an unsupervised connection to the mobile internet. I would be delighted to get a Real One from Apple. The HomePod Mini is close to this already. It’s. Not clear to me how much Apple Intelligence will be available through those. Again, if it actually works I will buy more of them.
- troupo 2y ago
  > Siri’s Generative AI upgrade (which is how I think of this whole Apple Intelligence thing) might be significant enough to change the smart phone as a segment. Why? Most play with generative AIs for a few days and then abandon them. The actual gamechanger would be making an AI assistant to be, you know, an actual assistant maybe?
  - pbronez 2y ago
    I think LLMs improve Natural Language Understanding enough that we can approach genuine assistance. This is especially true if (1) the AI has access to high quality, well structured context, and (2) there are some constraints on the domain of possible tasks. I think OS integration can provide both of those things. Mobile app selection is already pretty strong, and the Shortcuts ecosystem is a good example of providing direct access to specific functions implemented by apps. AI should use the shortcuts functions exposed by the apps I’ve already selected, installed and configured as tools. If I can use shortcuts on demand with just my voice… that’s a huge win for me.
- blitzar 2y ago
  > There are so many things that I feel Siri should be able to do, but it just can’t. The competitors can and have done these things for a long time now, but all any of these things are (currently) useful for is setting a timer and playing music. Without a rewind style access to your entire life, there is a real limit on how much useful stuff this technology can actually do.
  - pbronez 2y ago
    Perhaps. An LLM with exclusively global context (no personal context) is already pretty powerful, but certainly not helpful as an assistant. In theory, perfect personal context would help a lot. Certainly a smart human being who follow me around all day can be very useful, but is expensive and has human limitations. I don’t think I want exactly that from an AI. I am not thrilled with stuff like the Humane pin. I don’t trust that it will keep all those observations secure. I don’t trust that it will sort through all the noise to identify what’s actually important. I think a mobile OS is a good balance. It has a LOT of personal context. I already trust it to process that data securely. The context is already well-structured and actively curated. I’m optimistic that adding LLMs to this will be significantly useful.
Someone 2y ago
4: better photo and video filters From what I understand, such gimmicks are (almost) essential utilities for many. It also is possible that small improvements in intelligence will drive sales. For example, I don’t see much use for generating entire novels on-device, but good autocorrect and prediction of a few words may drive sales. I also like the automated tagging that iOS already does on photos. Also, even if the new features only make people upgrade a few months earlier, that will be serious amounts of money for Apple.
another2another 2y ago
I think there's also more subtle improvements using e.g. object recognition. Last week I was in an art gallery and took some photos of the paintings, when I suddenly noticed that it was drawing a focus around the frame and there was a 'Look up Artwork' option, which work fairly well (not 100%). Just as well, as I couldn't remember the works myself the next day after looking at the photos. If I hadn't taken those pictures I probably wold never have known the feature existed. iPhone 15.

pbronez 2y ago

Yeah. I’ve been planning to upgrade from my 12pro this fall, and I’m mostly excited to get better optical zoom and trash my lightning cables. I do think that Siri’s Generative AI upgrade (which is how I think of this whole Apple Intelligence thing) might be significant enough to change the smart phone as a segment. There are so many things that I feel Siri should be able to do, but it just can’t. Maybe this unlocks those use cases. If it does, that’s a major incentive for me to increase my investment/reliance on the Apple ecosystem. I’ll use the calendar and mail apps if it means Siri has all that context. I’ll upgrade devices to get the same answers with less perceptual lag. If we’re focused on hardware sales, I’d be interested in an Apple version of the Rabbit R1. That thing is almost a modernized iPod Touch - great device for kids you don’t trust with an unsupervised connection to the mobile internet. I would be delighted to get a Real One from Apple. The HomePod Mini is close to this already. It’s. Not clear to me how much Apple Intelligence will be available through those. Again, if it actually works I will buy more of them.

troupo 2y ago
> Siri’s Generative AI upgrade (which is how I think of this whole Apple Intelligence thing) might be significant enough to change the smart phone as a segment. Why? Most play with generative AIs for a few days and then abandon them. The actual gamechanger would be making an AI assistant to be, you know, an actual assistant maybe?
- pbronez 2y ago
  I think LLMs improve Natural Language Understanding enough that we can approach genuine assistance. This is especially true if (1) the AI has access to high quality, well structured context, and (2) there are some constraints on the domain of possible tasks. I think OS integration can provide both of those things. Mobile app selection is already pretty strong, and the Shortcuts ecosystem is a good example of providing direct access to specific functions implemented by apps. AI should use the shortcuts functions exposed by the apps I’ve already selected, installed and configured as tools. If I can use shortcuts on demand with just my voice… that’s a huge win for me.
blitzar 2y ago
> There are so many things that I feel Siri should be able to do, but it just can’t. The competitors can and have done these things for a long time now, but all any of these things are (currently) useful for is setting a timer and playing music. Without a rewind style access to your entire life, there is a real limit on how much useful stuff this technology can actually do.
- pbronez 2y ago
  Perhaps. An LLM with exclusively global context (no personal context) is already pretty powerful, but certainly not helpful as an assistant. In theory, perfect personal context would help a lot. Certainly a smart human being who follow me around all day can be very useful, but is expensive and has human limitations. I don’t think I want exactly that from an AI. I am not thrilled with stuff like the Humane pin. I don’t trust that it will keep all those observations secure. I don’t trust that it will sort through all the noise to identify what’s actually important. I think a mobile OS is a good balance. It has a LOT of personal context. I already trust it to process that data securely. The context is already well-structured and actively curated. I’m optimistic that adding LLMs to this will be significantly useful.

Someone 2y ago

4: better photo and video filters From what I understand, such gimmicks are (almost) essential utilities for many. It also is possible that small improvements in intelligence will drive sales. For example, I don’t see much use for generating entire novels on-device, but good autocorrect and prediction of a few words may drive sales. I also like the automated tagging that iOS already does on photos. Also, even if the new features only make people upgrade a few months earlier, that will be serious amounts of money for Apple.

another2another 2y ago

I think there's also more subtle improvements using e.g. object recognition. Last week I was in an art gallery and took some photos of the paintings, when I suddenly noticed that it was drawing a focus around the frame and there was a 'Look up Artwork' option, which work fairly well (not 100%). Just as well, as I couldn't remember the works myself the next day after looking at the photos. If I hadn't taken those pictures I probably wold never have known the feature existed. iPhone 15.