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When I saw PG's email, I thought this was a self-fulfilling prophesy, even if it was only seen by YC founders. But now that every has seen it - it will be in Fo

by pbiggar 14y ago

When I saw PG's email, I thought this was a self-fulfilling prophesy, even if it was only seen by YC founders. But now that every has seen it - it will be in Forbes and TechCrunch soon no doubt - it seems almost certain. If just YC founders see it, then they'll take less money, and get lower valuations, etc, leading the tone of the valley. But if everyone sees it, investors will close their wallets, people will declare the bubble is now popped, and the prophesy will fulfil itself.

mbreese 14y ago
I don't know how much this will affect investors. It's not like the lackluster performance of the Facebook IPO is insider information. This just seems like a way to tell companies what they might expect when they need to fundraise. Without more data, it's impossible to know exactly what this will do to valuations. And the advice to run lean isn't exactly new advice from pg. Founders will still try to get the best deal that they can, regardless of the market.
wavephorm 14y ago
Only the Social Network bubble is popped -- which is the majority of companies that YCombinator funds. Social network websites that can be built in 3 months and have zero paying customers or any potential profitability really shouldn't have existed in the first place.
- pbiggar 14y ago
  I'm not sure where you get your information, but it looks like you didn't read pg's email or my comment.
  - silentscope 14y ago
    catty
    - pbiggar 14y ago
      They're trolling, the best response is calling it out.
      - silentscope 14y ago
        I was calling the comment above me catty, which it was. I'm not trolling, but trying to convey that sharp sarcasam doesn't really ad much to a conversation. If people want to downvote me instead of the sarcasm, that's cool (I just don't necessarily understand it).
        pbiggar 14y ago
        Sorry, miscommunication. waveform was the troll, not you (though I dont think adding single word replies ever adds to the conversation on HN).
        silentscope 14y ago
        point well made. I could've been more elaborative.
- iamwil 14y ago
  Agreed with pbiggar about trolling. Most YC companies are by far not social network websites. You have not done your homework, or you're just trolling.
Nelson69 14y ago
I don't like this attitude. Sending that letter out is the honest thing to do. If you're gearing up to try and raise money, that is some important insight, your business is potentially in the balance right now. I've been trying to wrap my mind around the FB IPO for a while now. FB was ordained by the media. It was the next great Silicon Valley company, Zuck is the new Gates/Jobs/Dell/etc.. All the hype was about "biggest ever." There was very little real criticism, there were some doubters but nobody expected the stock to perform like this. FB was/is a legitimate Google competitor... I think in some circles people were skeptical about the value of social and its real 'value' but still, nobody was predicting this. It was going to climb up to $70 and then settle in around $45-$50, that's what everybody wanted and expected. To me, it shows that the investors have already closed their wallets. Maybe it shows something worse. Talking about it legitimizes the concerns people clearly have been having already but that doesn't mean they weren't there already or that it's suddenly worse. It may accelerate some things by making for less stupid people that aren't in the know but it was already happening. The stock market has done well the last 4 years but I don't know how many other indicators show that the whole economy is doing well and I think a lot of people (think not elite web hackers) would think or say we're still in the great recession, employment is still in the 10% range (maybe higher depending upon who's spin you want to take to heart) they're still sorting out mortgages and all that ilk, who knows how useful all the people coming back from the wars are I'm sure they've got some emotional issues but who knows when they'll surface, what percentage of college grads have no jobs? and then you've almost certainly got to unwind the Euro from Greece and who knows how that's going to work. Worse, if it goes pretty bad, then it's probably bad for the whole world and if it goes really well then the uncertainty could continue as there might be pressure to boot other countries out of the EU rather than bail them out.
- pbiggar 14y ago
  > I don't like this attitude. Sending that letter out is the honest thing to do. I wasn't criticizing the sending of the letter (at least, I didnt intend to have that attitude). Indeed, I found it very useful to read. Much less happy that it was leaked, of course. I hope the leak doesn't prevent pg from sending his honest advice to alumni, but if the honest advice leaks and has wider implications for his portfolio, well that would be pretty bad.

by pbiggar 14y ago

mbreese 14y ago

I don't know how much this will affect investors. It's not like the lackluster performance of the Facebook IPO is insider information. This just seems like a way to tell companies what they might expect when they need to fundraise. Without more data, it's impossible to know exactly what this will do to valuations. And the advice to run lean isn't exactly new advice from pg. Founders will still try to get the best deal that they can, regardless of the market.

wavephorm 14y ago

Only the Social Network bubble is popped -- which is the majority of companies that YCombinator funds. Social network websites that can be built in 3 months and have zero paying customers or any potential profitability really shouldn't have existed in the first place.

pbiggar 14y ago
I'm not sure where you get your information, but it looks like you didn't read pg's email or my comment.
- silentscope 14y ago
  catty
  - pbiggar 14y ago
    They're trolling, the best response is calling it out.
    - silentscope 14y ago
      I was calling the comment above me catty, which it was. I'm not trolling, but trying to convey that sharp sarcasam doesn't really ad much to a conversation. If people want to downvote me instead of the sarcasm, that's cool (I just don't necessarily understand it).
      - pbiggar 14y ago
        Sorry, miscommunication. waveform was the troll, not you (though I dont think adding single word replies ever adds to the conversation on HN).
        silentscope 14y ago
        point well made. I could've been more elaborative.
iamwil 14y ago
Agreed with pbiggar about trolling. Most YC companies are by far not social network websites. You have not done your homework, or you're just trolling.

Nelson69 14y ago

I don't like this attitude. Sending that letter out is the honest thing to do. If you're gearing up to try and raise money, that is some important insight, your business is potentially in the balance right now. I've been trying to wrap my mind around the FB IPO for a while now. FB was ordained by the media. It was the next great Silicon Valley company, Zuck is the new Gates/Jobs/Dell/etc.. All the hype was about "biggest ever." There was very little real criticism, there were some doubters but nobody expected the stock to perform like this. FB was/is a legitimate Google competitor... I think in some circles people were skeptical about the value of social and its real 'value' but still, nobody was predicting this. It was going to climb up to $70 and then settle in around $45-$50, that's what everybody wanted and expected. To me, it shows that the investors have already closed their wallets. Maybe it shows something worse. Talking about it legitimizes the concerns people clearly have been having already but that doesn't mean they weren't there already or that it's suddenly worse. It may accelerate some things by making for less stupid people that aren't in the know but it was already happening. The stock market has done well the last 4 years but I don't know how many other indicators show that the whole economy is doing well and I think a lot of people (think not elite web hackers) would think or say we're still in the great recession, employment is still in the 10% range (maybe higher depending upon who's spin you want to take to heart) they're still sorting out mortgages and all that ilk, who knows how useful all the people coming back from the wars are I'm sure they've got some emotional issues but who knows when they'll surface, what percentage of college grads have no jobs? and then you've almost certainly got to unwind the Euro from Greece and who knows how that's going to work. Worse, if it goes pretty bad, then it's probably bad for the whole world and if it goes really well then the uncertainty could continue as there might be pressure to boot other countries out of the EU rather than bail them out.

pbiggar 14y ago
> I don't like this attitude. Sending that letter out is the honest thing to do. I wasn't criticizing the sending of the letter (at least, I didnt intend to have that attitude). Indeed, I found it very useful to read. Much less happy that it was leaked, of course. I hope the leak doesn't prevent pg from sending his honest advice to alumni, but if the honest advice leaks and has wider implications for his portfolio, well that would be pretty bad.