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Brexit is one of the biggest "shock" events to have happened in recent history, but little really changed in the short term for Britain. An average brit who was

by aylmao 2y ago

Brexit is one of the biggest "shock" events to have happened in recent history, but little really changed in the short term for Britain. An average brit who wasn't in the import/export business probably didn't notice anything the day of, or the day after Brexit. It's been slow, and one can argue, visible now in the long term "in the graphs". Recovery from COVID was slow. There's a creeping cost-of-living crisis, productivity has been stagnant, investment low, etc. Some might attribute this at least in part to Brexit, some may not, but the truth is, wether Brexit played a role or not, this is how it would surface— slowly, and in the charts.

ben_w 2y ago
Brexit also had a 10% shift in currency value as soon as the markets could react to the news. I don't know how big a deal this news is on the markets, especially given everyone's already trying to shift to renewables. And it might have been predicted in advance, unlike Brexit where the markets expected Remain.
- aylmao 2y ago
  I think Brexit was also more obvious. The effects and timelines were more clear, there were stronger, and well-publicized opinions, and so it was easier to predict what would happen and hedge accordingly. This time of predictability also creates a self-fulfilling prophecy environment. Having people bet against makes things harder. These news on the other hand seem more abstract. There's no deal now, but the Saudis could change little in the way they do business. They could also change a lot. Other players have cards in the game too— China could start pushing a petroyuan, it could be well-received, or maybe not. There's a lot of actors in the world trade of oil, and the global use of the dollar— plus the latter depends on much more than just oil trade. With so many questions in the air, I'm not surprised nobody is making strong bets on what will happen. And perhaps this even leads to little happening in the short term. I guess time will tell.
  - mensetmanusman 2y ago
    China has too many negative trends to be a safe bet.
deleted 2y ago
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dmix 2y ago
Are you sure those same things aren't happening across Europe? sounds a lot like Canada too

by aylmao 2y ago

ben_w 2y ago

Brexit also had a 10% shift in currency value as soon as the markets could react to the news. I don't know how big a deal this news is on the markets, especially given everyone's already trying to shift to renewables. And it might have been predicted in advance, unlike Brexit where the markets expected Remain.

aylmao 2y ago
I think Brexit was also more obvious. The effects and timelines were more clear, there were stronger, and well-publicized opinions, and so it was easier to predict what would happen and hedge accordingly. This time of predictability also creates a self-fulfilling prophecy environment. Having people bet against makes things harder. These news on the other hand seem more abstract. There's no deal now, but the Saudis could change little in the way they do business. They could also change a lot. Other players have cards in the game too— China could start pushing a petroyuan, it could be well-received, or maybe not. There's a lot of actors in the world trade of oil, and the global use of the dollar— plus the latter depends on much more than just oil trade. With so many questions in the air, I'm not surprised nobody is making strong bets on what will happen. And perhaps this even leads to little happening in the short term. I guess time will tell.
- mensetmanusman 2y ago
  China has too many negative trends to be a safe bet.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

dmix 2y ago

Are you sure those same things aren't happening across Europe? sounds a lot like Canada too