4 ms·

This is a vestige of the 1970s, it isn't particularly relevant in a world where the US is an oil and gas producing juggernaut. The geopolitics of oil are very d

This is a vestige of the 1970s, it isn't particularly relevant in a world where the US is an oil and gas producing juggernaut. The geopolitics of oil are very different than they once were. The conspiracy theories around the petrodollar have always been a bit overwrought. It is no different than China divesting US treasuries. There were people that asserted this would be apocalyptic but there was nothing substantive behind those fears. And then it actually happened and no one noticed.

elzbardico 2y ago
Oil is what matters less here. The point is that the ability of the US to refinance its debt and support the massive consumption levels of the American people through cheap imports and massive trade deficits rely on a healthy global demand for the USD. The Us is now a massive producer of oil, but it is not a massive net exporter of it, because it consumes a lot. So, when the big net exporters of oil decide to accept other things in payment in lieu of the USD it inevitably has a depressing effect on the global demand for the dollar.
- DrFalkyn 2y ago
  Sure they can accept whatever currency they want Which they will then trade for USD and stash in banks or buy stuff from the US
  - elzbardico 2y ago
    If you don't need the USD do buy oil, industrial goods, services and commodities, why would you trade all your surplus for USD? Every billateral trade you do in another currency other than the US, means your demand for dollars has decreased.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > it is not a massive net exporter of it, because it consumes a lot Wrong [1]. We are the world's largest producer and 4th-largest exporter, halfway to Saudi Arabia and three quarters to Russia. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_exports https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_expor...
  - elzbardico 2y ago
    I said net exporter, not just merely exporter. And NO, the US is not a net exporter of oil. Yes, the US export around 3.6M bbl/d in 2022. But, it imported around 6.3M bbl/day in the same year. So, it was a net importer. The reason why this happens I leave as an exercise for the reader that is so gung-ho in calling others wrong.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - philipkglass 2y ago
      The US is currently a net exporter of oil, and it was in 2022 as well: U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=a https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m... Note that this is a "net imports" graph where values below 0 indicate net exports. The graph shows that the last year where the US was a net importer was 2019.
      - elzbardico 2y ago
        This graph includes refined products. The data I am using from wikipedia is only for crude oil.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Yes, the US export around 3.6M bbl/d in 2022. But, it imported around 6.3M bbl/day in the same year You’re wrong, as the other comment points out. But these numbers are so wildly wrong that I’m curious for your source. (8.5mm b/d in vs 10.15mm b.d out [1] in 2023. If we limit ourselves to crude oil, it's 4.1mm b/d out [2] vs hundreds of thousands in [3]. A literal order of magnitude.) [1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727 [2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61584 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61584 [3] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrimus1&f=m https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m...

elzbardico 2y ago

Oil is what matters less here. The point is that the ability of the US to refinance its debt and support the massive consumption levels of the American people through cheap imports and massive trade deficits rely on a healthy global demand for the USD. The Us is now a massive producer of oil, but it is not a massive net exporter of it, because it consumes a lot. So, when the big net exporters of oil decide to accept other things in payment in lieu of the USD it inevitably has a depressing effect on the global demand for the dollar.

DrFalkyn 2y ago
Sure they can accept whatever currency they want Which they will then trade for USD and stash in banks or buy stuff from the US
- elzbardico 2y ago
  If you don't need the USD do buy oil, industrial goods, services and commodities, why would you trade all your surplus for USD? Every billateral trade you do in another currency other than the US, means your demand for dollars has decreased.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> it is not a massive net exporter of it, because it consumes a lot Wrong [1]. We are the world's largest producer and 4th-largest exporter, halfway to Saudi Arabia and three quarters to Russia. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_exports https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_expor...
- elzbardico 2y ago
  I said net exporter, not just merely exporter. And NO, the US is not a net exporter of oil. Yes, the US export around 3.6M bbl/d in 2022. But, it imported around 6.3M bbl/day in the same year. So, it was a net importer. The reason why this happens I leave as an exercise for the reader that is so gung-ho in calling others wrong.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - philipkglass 2y ago
    The US is currently a net exporter of oil, and it was in 2022 as well: U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=a https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m... Note that this is a "net imports" graph where values below 0 indicate net exports. The graph shows that the last year where the US was a net importer was 2019.
    - elzbardico 2y ago
      This graph includes refined products. The data I am using from wikipedia is only for crude oil.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > Yes, the US export around 3.6M bbl/d in 2022. But, it imported around 6.3M bbl/day in the same year You’re wrong, as the other comment points out. But these numbers are so wildly wrong that I’m curious for your source. (8.5mm b/d in vs 10.15mm b.d out [1] in 2023. If we limit ourselves to crude oil, it's 4.1mm b/d out [2] vs hundreds of thousands in [3]. A literal order of magnitude.) [1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727 [2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61584 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61584 [3] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrimus1&f=m https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m...