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Unfortunately nothing really happened in Russia because the only meaningful exchange rate of RUB / USD pair is not set by some central bank or exchange, but cry

by SXX 2y ago

Unfortunately nothing really happened in Russia because the only meaningful exchange rate of RUB / USD pair is not set by some central bank or exchange, but crypto market: https://www.bestchange.com/sberbank-to-tether-trc20.html https://www.bestchange.com/sberbank-to-tether-trc20.html There was drop of like 5-10%, but that's nothing special. You can still go and buy as much USDT as you want for reasonable price. And this is what majority of normal people use to move money out of country. PS: I am obviously anti-Putin dude, but at this point sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia Correct. Long term, the effects of a materially-high real interest rate, capital controls and the demographic and technological degradation of sanctions and the war directly are starting to show their teeth. Sanctions won’t stop this war. But they’ll facilitate degrading Russia so it is in no position to launch the next. (Weapons will stop this war.)
- SXX 2y ago
  Yeah. But nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions and unlikely to happen anytime soon. At current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely just by pumping money into economy and making society pay for it. Old soviet joke: Dad: Looks like vodka will become more expensive. Son: Dad, are you going to drink less now? Dad: No, son, now you are going to eat less.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions The semiconductor shortage is militarily relevant, as are the increasing delays in repairing damaged refineries and power plants [1]. > current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely Setting aside demographics, his war engine relies on oil, an increasingly-stranded asset [2]. (Over geopolitical time scales.) Putin is blowing grandma’s inheritance on fast cars. [1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-sanctions-hamper-russian-efforts-repair-refineries-sources-say-2024-04-04/#:~:text=The%20attacks,stream%20of https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-sanctions-ham... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/big-oil-given-stark-warning-as-a-major-supply-surplus-expected-by-2030.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/big-oil-given-stark-warning-...
    - SXX 2y ago
      > The semiconductor shortage is pretty big What semiconductor shortage? Who is affected by them? Russia is buying literally everything through Turkey, Kazakhstan and other ex-USSR countries. US and EU exports to ex-USSR countries are booming. Of course Russia can't just sneak up some giant oil refinery or LPG equipment, but semiconductors are super easy to smuggle. Even more so since they have unlimited budget.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > What semiconductor shortage? Who is affected by them? Russia is buying literally everything through Turkey, Kazakhstan and other ex-USSR countries Which increases cost and lag time. It also means they’re restricted to commodity components; it’s even harder for them to have custom components fabricated. Blockade runners have always been a thing. The point of the blockade is to increase cost, lag and uncertainty. That’s the difference between blockade/sanctions and siege.
        baybal2 2y ago
        [dead]
- endofreach 2y ago
  the west only cares about this to weaken russia. Weapons will only cost more lives. "Weapons will stop this war"? How? What's the end game? When it started the people believed it would be over in 3 days. Now all of a sudden people believe ukraine can destroy russia? How many more ukranian and russian soldiers must die? This war will not be stopped by weapons. Just like any other. But if it was, i can't see a defeated russia, but a destroyed world. Or what is the end-game here with the weapons? What do you think is a feasible outcome here?
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > How? What's the end game? Plenty of options. From complete Russian withdrawal (unlikely absent a Russian civil war) to a return to 2015 borders with neutral zones manned with international peacekeepers. Worst case: keeping the fronts where they are while Putin burns war materiel. > This war will not be stopped by weapons. Just like any other. You’re claiming wars have never been stopped by weapons?
    - tibbydudeza 2y ago
      Indeed - US lend-lease during WW2 would like to have a word.
  - lolinder 2y ago
    What do you think the feasible outcome is of Ukraine caving and yielding territory? Do you really think Russia will stop at eating up Eastern Ukraine? Russia believes that war is the best way to get what they want. If the war in Ukraine ends with a Russian victory it won't mean world peace, it will mean we wait a few more years for Russia to build back up before it's on to the next war of aggression. Where does it end if it doesn't end in Ukraine?
  - NicoJuicy 2y ago
    Ofc. More weapons for Ukraine will stop the war and provide Ukraine with a better peace position. You don't stop a bully by saying "please". They'll take your money and come back for more after. In this case, Russians are taking your land, men, woman, children, culture and washing machines + the gas found in 2013 nearby crimea and the minerals in the most resource dense land of Ukraine ( lithium, ... ). Here you go: https://www.renewablematter.eu/en/ukraine-all-lithium-reserves-and-mineral-resources-in-war-zones https://www.renewablematter.eu/en/ukraine-all-lithium-reserv... https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE90N11X/ https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE90N11X/ If only in 2014 the international response would have been harder ( => provide weapons), Putin wouldn't have escalated 8 years later. Providing more to Ukraine is long overdue. > the west only cares about this to weaken russia. Weapons will only cost more lives. Speak for yourselve. Some of my dearest friends these days are from Ukraine. ( Belgium) While Europe is providing shelter and a life for 6 million refugees.

by SXX 2y ago

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia Correct. Long term, the effects of a materially-high real interest rate, capital controls and the demographic and technological degradation of sanctions and the war directly are starting to show their teeth. Sanctions won’t stop this war. But they’ll facilitate degrading Russia so it is in no position to launch the next. (Weapons will stop this war.)

SXX 2y ago
Yeah. But nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions and unlikely to happen anytime soon. At current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely just by pumping money into economy and making society pay for it. Old soviet joke: Dad: Looks like vodka will become more expensive. Son: Dad, are you going to drink less now? Dad: No, son, now you are going to eat less.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions The semiconductor shortage is militarily relevant, as are the increasing delays in repairing damaged refineries and power plants [1]. > current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely Setting aside demographics, his war engine relies on oil, an increasingly-stranded asset [2]. (Over geopolitical time scales.) Putin is blowing grandma’s inheritance on fast cars. [1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-sanctions-hamper-russian-efforts-repair-refineries-sources-say-2024-04-04/#:~:text=The%20attacks,stream%20of https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-sanctions-ham... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/big-oil-given-stark-warning-as-a-major-supply-surplus-expected-by-2030.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/big-oil-given-stark-warning-...
  - SXX 2y ago
    > The semiconductor shortage is pretty big What semiconductor shortage? Who is affected by them? Russia is buying literally everything through Turkey, Kazakhstan and other ex-USSR countries. US and EU exports to ex-USSR countries are booming. Of course Russia can't just sneak up some giant oil refinery or LPG equipment, but semiconductors are super easy to smuggle. Even more so since they have unlimited budget.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > What semiconductor shortage? Who is affected by them? Russia is buying literally everything through Turkey, Kazakhstan and other ex-USSR countries Which increases cost and lag time. It also means they’re restricted to commodity components; it’s even harder for them to have custom components fabricated. Blockade runners have always been a thing. The point of the blockade is to increase cost, lag and uncertainty. That’s the difference between blockade/sanctions and siege.
      - baybal2 2y ago
        [dead]
endofreach 2y ago
the west only cares about this to weaken russia. Weapons will only cost more lives. "Weapons will stop this war"? How? What's the end game? When it started the people believed it would be over in 3 days. Now all of a sudden people believe ukraine can destroy russia? How many more ukranian and russian soldiers must die? This war will not be stopped by weapons. Just like any other. But if it was, i can't see a defeated russia, but a destroyed world. Or what is the end-game here with the weapons? What do you think is a feasible outcome here?
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > How? What's the end game? Plenty of options. From complete Russian withdrawal (unlikely absent a Russian civil war) to a return to 2015 borders with neutral zones manned with international peacekeepers. Worst case: keeping the fronts where they are while Putin burns war materiel. > This war will not be stopped by weapons. Just like any other. You’re claiming wars have never been stopped by weapons?
  - tibbydudeza 2y ago
    Indeed - US lend-lease during WW2 would like to have a word.
- lolinder 2y ago
  What do you think the feasible outcome is of Ukraine caving and yielding territory? Do you really think Russia will stop at eating up Eastern Ukraine? Russia believes that war is the best way to get what they want. If the war in Ukraine ends with a Russian victory it won't mean world peace, it will mean we wait a few more years for Russia to build back up before it's on to the next war of aggression. Where does it end if it doesn't end in Ukraine?
- NicoJuicy 2y ago
  Ofc. More weapons for Ukraine will stop the war and provide Ukraine with a better peace position. You don't stop a bully by saying "please". They'll take your money and come back for more after. In this case, Russians are taking your land, men, woman, children, culture and washing machines + the gas found in 2013 nearby crimea and the minerals in the most resource dense land of Ukraine ( lithium, ... ). Here you go: https://www.renewablematter.eu/en/ukraine-all-lithium-reserves-and-mineral-resources-in-war-zones https://www.renewablematter.eu/en/ukraine-all-lithium-reserv... https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE90N11X/ https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE90N11X/ If only in 2014 the international response would have been harder ( => provide weapons), Putin wouldn't have escalated 8 years later. Providing more to Ukraine is long overdue. > the west only cares about this to weaken russia. Weapons will only cost more lives. Speak for yourselve. Some of my dearest friends these days are from Ukraine. ( Belgium) While Europe is providing shelter and a life for 6 million refugees.