4 ms·

Given the enormous cost and that any project started today won’t supply any power for 20 years no commercial company is ever going to invest in it.

bigyikes 2y ago
85% of nuclear reactors are built in under 10 years[1]. It also seems to me that if there were sufficient political willpower that improvements could be made here. It’s a bit like how anti-solar folks complain about the massive cost while ignoring that it is possible to improve costs. 1: http://euanmearns.com/how-long-does-it-take-to-build-a-nuclear-power-plant/ http://euanmearns.com/how-long-does-it-take-to-build-a-nucle...
- auspiv 2y ago
  22600 oil/gas wells drilled in 2022 in the US [1]. Fervo is proposing to do ~20 MW per injector/producer pair [2][3]. that's 11000 potential pairs per year x 10 years = 110000 pairs = 2200000 MW = 2200 GW. total US usage is 4 trillion kWh for 2022 [4], which is 456 GW averaged over the whole year. so in the 10 years that it takes to build 85% of nuclear reactors, the oil/gas industry could drill enough geothermal wells to satisfy 4x the electricity requirements of the entire US. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/965763/number-of-oil-and-gas-wells-drilled-in-the-united-states/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/965763/number-of-oil-and... [2] https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-breaks-ground-on-the-worlds-largest-next-gen-geothermal-project/ https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-breaks-ground-on-the-wo... [3] presentation in Denver May 2024 by fervo completion engineer said 40 total wells [4] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/use-of-electricity.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/use-of-elect...
- ViewTrick1002 2y ago
  Relying on data from the 70s and 80s a have very little bearing on the construction timelines expected in todays advanced service economies. Even getting a finished reactor in the west is a good project. Most have either been cancelled or never progressed past the investment decision. Through all of nuclear powers history we have seen negative learning. The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421510003526 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03014...
chickenbig 2y ago
Companies can always site next to an existing power plant. Valuing existing assets more highly can certainly help with filling the construction pipeline. The following video puts nuclear electricity prices up at just under 100 USD/MWh for those who must have power. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sgLNESOD3k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sgLNESOD3k

bigyikes 2y ago

85% of nuclear reactors are built in under 10 years[1]. It also seems to me that if there were sufficient political willpower that improvements could be made here. It’s a bit like how anti-solar folks complain about the massive cost while ignoring that it is possible to improve costs. 1: http://euanmearns.com/how-long-does-it-take-to-build-a-nuclear-power-plant/ http://euanmearns.com/how-long-does-it-take-to-build-a-nucle...

auspiv 2y ago
22600 oil/gas wells drilled in 2022 in the US [1]. Fervo is proposing to do ~20 MW per injector/producer pair [2][3]. that's 11000 potential pairs per year x 10 years = 110000 pairs = 2200000 MW = 2200 GW. total US usage is 4 trillion kWh for 2022 [4], which is 456 GW averaged over the whole year. so in the 10 years that it takes to build 85% of nuclear reactors, the oil/gas industry could drill enough geothermal wells to satisfy 4x the electricity requirements of the entire US. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/965763/number-of-oil-and-gas-wells-drilled-in-the-united-states/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/965763/number-of-oil-and... [2] https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-breaks-ground-on-the-worlds-largest-next-gen-geothermal-project/ https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-breaks-ground-on-the-wo... [3] presentation in Denver May 2024 by fervo completion engineer said 40 total wells [4] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/use-of-electricity.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/use-of-elect...
ViewTrick1002 2y ago
Relying on data from the 70s and 80s a have very little bearing on the construction timelines expected in todays advanced service economies. Even getting a finished reactor in the west is a good project. Most have either been cancelled or never progressed past the investment decision. Through all of nuclear powers history we have seen negative learning. The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421510003526 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03014...

chickenbig 2y ago

Companies can always site next to an existing power plant. Valuing existing assets more highly can certainly help with filling the construction pipeline. The following video puts nuclear electricity prices up at just under 100 USD/MWh for those who must have power. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sgLNESOD3k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sgLNESOD3k