6 ms·

It's mentioned in the article, but the reaction to the sanctions seem fairly severe? Russian banks went down en masse, the spread of foreign currencies was lar

by lawn 2y ago

It's mentioned in the article, but the reaction to the sanctions seem fairly severe? Russian banks went down en masse, the spread of foreign currencies was larger than the official numbers, and people were queuing outside the banks to withdraw money. Of course, the Russian narrative is that this will hurt the west more than it will hurt Russia...

SXX 2y ago
Unfortunately nothing really happened in Russia because the only meaningful exchange rate of RUB / USD pair is not set by some central bank or exchange, but crypto market: https://www.bestchange.com/sberbank-to-tether-trc20.html https://www.bestchange.com/sberbank-to-tether-trc20.html There was drop of like 5-10%, but that's nothing special. You can still go and buy as much USDT as you want for reasonable price. And this is what majority of normal people use to move money out of country. PS: I am obviously anti-Putin dude, but at this point sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia Correct. Long term, the effects of a materially-high real interest rate, capital controls and the demographic and technological degradation of sanctions and the war directly are starting to show their teeth. Sanctions won’t stop this war. But they’ll facilitate degrading Russia so it is in no position to launch the next. (Weapons will stop this war.)
  - SXX 2y ago
    Yeah. But nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions and unlikely to happen anytime soon. At current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely just by pumping money into economy and making society pay for it. Old soviet joke: Dad: Looks like vodka will become more expensive. Son: Dad, are you going to drink less now? Dad: No, son, now you are going to eat less.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions The semiconductor shortage is militarily relevant, as are the increasing delays in repairing damaged refineries and power plants [1]. > current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely Setting aside demographics, his war engine relies on oil, an increasingly-stranded asset [2]. (Over geopolitical time scales.) Putin is blowing grandma’s inheritance on fast cars. [1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-sanctions-hamper-russian-efforts-repair-refineries-sources-say-2024-04-04/#:~:text=The%20attacks,stream%20of https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-sanctions-ham... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/big-oil-given-stark-warning-as-a-major-supply-surplus-expected-by-2030.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/big-oil-given-stark-warning-...
      - SXX 2y ago
        > The semiconductor shortage is pretty big What semiconductor shortage? Who is affected by them? Russia is buying literally everything through Turkey, Kazakhstan and other ex-USSR countries. US and EU exports to ex-USSR countries are booming. Of course Russia can't just sneak up some giant oil refinery or LPG equipment, but semiconductors are super easy to smuggle. Even more so since they have unlimited budget.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > What semiconductor shortage? Who is affected by them? Russia is buying literally everything through Turkey, Kazakhstan and other ex-USSR countries Which increases cost and lag time. It also means they’re restricted to commodity components; it’s even harder for them to have custom components fabricated. Blockade runners have always been a thing. The point of the blockade is to increase cost, lag and uncertainty. That’s the difference between blockade/sanctions and siege.
        baybal2 2y ago
        [dead]
  - endofreach 2y ago
    the west only cares about this to weaken russia. Weapons will only cost more lives. "Weapons will stop this war"? How? What's the end game? When it started the people believed it would be over in 3 days. Now all of a sudden people believe ukraine can destroy russia? How many more ukranian and russian soldiers must die? This war will not be stopped by weapons. Just like any other. But if it was, i can't see a defeated russia, but a destroyed world. Or what is the end-game here with the weapons? What do you think is a feasible outcome here?
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > How? What's the end game? Plenty of options. From complete Russian withdrawal (unlikely absent a Russian civil war) to a return to 2015 borders with neutral zones manned with international peacekeepers. Worst case: keeping the fronts where they are while Putin burns war materiel. > This war will not be stopped by weapons. Just like any other. You’re claiming wars have never been stopped by weapons?
      - tibbydudeza 2y ago
        Indeed - US lend-lease during WW2 would like to have a word.
    - lolinder 2y ago
      What do you think the feasible outcome is of Ukraine caving and yielding territory? Do you really think Russia will stop at eating up Eastern Ukraine? Russia believes that war is the best way to get what they want. If the war in Ukraine ends with a Russian victory it won't mean world peace, it will mean we wait a few more years for Russia to build back up before it's on to the next war of aggression. Where does it end if it doesn't end in Ukraine?
    - NicoJuicy 2y ago
      Ofc. More weapons for Ukraine will stop the war and provide Ukraine with a better peace position. You don't stop a bully by saying "please". They'll take your money and come back for more after. In this case, Russians are taking your land, men, woman, children, culture and washing machines + the gas found in 2013 nearby crimea and the minerals in the most resource dense land of Ukraine ( lithium, ... ). Here you go: https://www.renewablematter.eu/en/ukraine-all-lithium-reserves-and-mineral-resources-in-war-zones https://www.renewablematter.eu/en/ukraine-all-lithium-reserv... https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE90N11X/ https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE90N11X/ If only in 2014 the international response would have been harder ( => provide weapons), Putin wouldn't have escalated 8 years later. Providing more to Ukraine is long overdue. > the west only cares about this to weaken russia. Weapons will only cost more lives. Speak for yourselve. Some of my dearest friends these days are from Ukraine. ( Belgium) While Europe is providing shelter and a life for 6 million refugees.
zrn900 2y ago
> Russian banks went down en masse Huh? In what world? > the Russian narrative Dont say such things after saying stuff like you just did above. You people live in such a delusional false reality propagated by your establishment that its worse than 2003. Ukraine is 'winning' despite losing, Russia is sinking despite becoming the 4th largest economy and having major increase in real wages, US economy is 'doing fine' even as the number and size of the sunken US banks eclipse 2008.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Russia is sinking despite becoming the 4th largest economy Sixth [1] to 11th [2], on track to being eclipsed by Indonesia and Mexico. > having major increase in real wages Real wages are up, yes, but real disposable income is flat [3]. This isn’t uncommon in a war footing [4]. Labour and necessities are diverted to the front, raising prices for both. That squeezes disposable income, which moderates price growth in luxuries. The effect, if you’re measuring with a pre-war basket of goods, is rising real earnings and falling disposable income. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PP... PPP [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(no... [3] https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/putin-grows-war-economy-incomes-suffer-lost-decade-2024-03-14/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/putin-grows-war-econo... [4] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Nazi_Germany https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Nazi_Germany
  - zrn900 2y ago
    >> Russia is sinking despite becoming the 4th largest economy What part of it is 'sinking'? It increased its oil exports. It increased its other resource exports. Europe is still buying Russian gas and oil, except through India and its now called 'Indian oil'. It achieved independence in a lot of things that it was buying from the West, mixing it with homegrown products and global south imports. The sanctions HIT EUROPE MORE, with all the European companies losing their market share in Russia and their market share being taken over by Russian companies and Chinese ones. The references are from REUTERS, none other than one of the Angloamerican establishment mouthpieces that sells every war including how they sold the WMD lies, and some aggregate of Wikipedia articles that are tangential and supposed to be relevant? Here's what's relevant: https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/fragile-why-more-us-banks-are-risk-run https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/fragile... > This isn’t uncommon in a war footing [4]. Labour and necessities are diverted to the front, raising prices for both. That squeezes disposable income, which moderates price growth in luxuries. The effect, if you’re measuring with a pre-war basket of goods, is rising real earnings and falling disposable income. None of that is applicable to the actual reality that Russians themselves report, you are just flat out theorizing what 'should happen' with absolutely no connection to the actual reality. Everything you say and believe is in line with things like 'ghost of kiev', "ukraine will reach Moscow in a month", "Russia wanted to conquer Ukraine in 3 months but it couldn't", "Chinese economy is set for a hard landing (yet) again" and all that sh*t. ... Really, you people live in la la land. Your worst enemy is not Russia or China. Its you and your delirious 'I prefer to believe what I like to hear" attitude. Downvote this post. It will make the reality go away.
mlindner 2y ago
I think this was also intended to help push the last foreign companies out of Russia. If they can't do currency exchanges easily then it increases reasons to get out of country.

by lawn 2y ago

SXX 2y ago

Unfortunately nothing really happened in Russia because the only meaningful exchange rate of RUB / USD pair is not set by some central bank or exchange, but crypto market: https://www.bestchange.com/sberbank-to-tether-trc20.html https://www.bestchange.com/sberbank-to-tether-trc20.html There was drop of like 5-10%, but that's nothing special. You can still go and buy as much USDT as you want for reasonable price. And this is what majority of normal people use to move money out of country. PS: I am obviously anti-Putin dude, but at this point sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia Correct. Long term, the effects of a materially-high real interest rate, capital controls and the demographic and technological degradation of sanctions and the war directly are starting to show their teeth. Sanctions won’t stop this war. But they’ll facilitate degrading Russia so it is in no position to launch the next. (Weapons will stop this war.)
- SXX 2y ago
  Yeah. But nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions and unlikely to happen anytime soon. At current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely just by pumping money into economy and making society pay for it. Old soviet joke: Dad: Looks like vodka will become more expensive. Son: Dad, are you going to drink less now? Dad: No, son, now you are going to eat less.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions The semiconductor shortage is militarily relevant, as are the increasing delays in repairing damaged refineries and power plants [1]. > current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely Setting aside demographics, his war engine relies on oil, an increasingly-stranded asset [2]. (Over geopolitical time scales.) Putin is blowing grandma’s inheritance on fast cars. [1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-sanctions-hamper-russian-efforts-repair-refineries-sources-say-2024-04-04/#:~:text=The%20attacks,stream%20of https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-sanctions-ham... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/big-oil-given-stark-warning-as-a-major-supply-surplus-expected-by-2030.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/big-oil-given-stark-warning-...
    - SXX 2y ago
      > The semiconductor shortage is pretty big What semiconductor shortage? Who is affected by them? Russia is buying literally everything through Turkey, Kazakhstan and other ex-USSR countries. US and EU exports to ex-USSR countries are booming. Of course Russia can't just sneak up some giant oil refinery or LPG equipment, but semiconductors are super easy to smuggle. Even more so since they have unlimited budget.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > What semiconductor shortage? Who is affected by them? Russia is buying literally everything through Turkey, Kazakhstan and other ex-USSR countries Which increases cost and lag time. It also means they’re restricted to commodity components; it’s even harder for them to have custom components fabricated. Blockade runners have always been a thing. The point of the blockade is to increase cost, lag and uncertainty. That’s the difference between blockade/sanctions and siege.
        baybal2 2y ago
        [dead]
- endofreach 2y ago
  the west only cares about this to weaken russia. Weapons will only cost more lives. "Weapons will stop this war"? How? What's the end game? When it started the people believed it would be over in 3 days. Now all of a sudden people believe ukraine can destroy russia? How many more ukranian and russian soldiers must die? This war will not be stopped by weapons. Just like any other. But if it was, i can't see a defeated russia, but a destroyed world. Or what is the end-game here with the weapons? What do you think is a feasible outcome here?
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > How? What's the end game? Plenty of options. From complete Russian withdrawal (unlikely absent a Russian civil war) to a return to 2015 borders with neutral zones manned with international peacekeepers. Worst case: keeping the fronts where they are while Putin burns war materiel. > This war will not be stopped by weapons. Just like any other. You’re claiming wars have never been stopped by weapons?
    - tibbydudeza 2y ago
      Indeed - US lend-lease during WW2 would like to have a word.
  - lolinder 2y ago
    What do you think the feasible outcome is of Ukraine caving and yielding territory? Do you really think Russia will stop at eating up Eastern Ukraine? Russia believes that war is the best way to get what they want. If the war in Ukraine ends with a Russian victory it won't mean world peace, it will mean we wait a few more years for Russia to build back up before it's on to the next war of aggression. Where does it end if it doesn't end in Ukraine?
  - NicoJuicy 2y ago
    Ofc. More weapons for Ukraine will stop the war and provide Ukraine with a better peace position. You don't stop a bully by saying "please". They'll take your money and come back for more after. In this case, Russians are taking your land, men, woman, children, culture and washing machines + the gas found in 2013 nearby crimea and the minerals in the most resource dense land of Ukraine ( lithium, ... ). Here you go: https://www.renewablematter.eu/en/ukraine-all-lithium-reserves-and-mineral-resources-in-war-zones https://www.renewablematter.eu/en/ukraine-all-lithium-reserv... https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE90N11X/ https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE90N11X/ If only in 2014 the international response would have been harder ( => provide weapons), Putin wouldn't have escalated 8 years later. Providing more to Ukraine is long overdue. > the west only cares about this to weaken russia. Weapons will only cost more lives. Speak for yourselve. Some of my dearest friends these days are from Ukraine. ( Belgium) While Europe is providing shelter and a life for 6 million refugees.

zrn900 2y ago

> Russian banks went down en masse Huh? In what world? > the Russian narrative Dont say such things after saying stuff like you just did above. You people live in such a delusional false reality propagated by your establishment that its worse than 2003. Ukraine is 'winning' despite losing, Russia is sinking despite becoming the 4th largest economy and having major increase in real wages, US economy is 'doing fine' even as the number and size of the sunken US banks eclipse 2008.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Russia is sinking despite becoming the 4th largest economy Sixth [1] to 11th [2], on track to being eclipsed by Indonesia and Mexico. > having major increase in real wages Real wages are up, yes, but real disposable income is flat [3]. This isn’t uncommon in a war footing [4]. Labour and necessities are diverted to the front, raising prices for both. That squeezes disposable income, which moderates price growth in luxuries. The effect, if you’re measuring with a pre-war basket of goods, is rising real earnings and falling disposable income. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PP... PPP [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(no... [3] https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/putin-grows-war-economy-incomes-suffer-lost-decade-2024-03-14/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/putin-grows-war-econo... [4] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Nazi_Germany https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Nazi_Germany
- zrn900 2y ago
  >> Russia is sinking despite becoming the 4th largest economy What part of it is 'sinking'? It increased its oil exports. It increased its other resource exports. Europe is still buying Russian gas and oil, except through India and its now called 'Indian oil'. It achieved independence in a lot of things that it was buying from the West, mixing it with homegrown products and global south imports. The sanctions HIT EUROPE MORE, with all the European companies losing their market share in Russia and their market share being taken over by Russian companies and Chinese ones. The references are from REUTERS, none other than one of the Angloamerican establishment mouthpieces that sells every war including how they sold the WMD lies, and some aggregate of Wikipedia articles that are tangential and supposed to be relevant? Here's what's relevant: https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/fragile-why-more-us-banks-are-risk-run https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/fragile... > This isn’t uncommon in a war footing [4]. Labour and necessities are diverted to the front, raising prices for both. That squeezes disposable income, which moderates price growth in luxuries. The effect, if you’re measuring with a pre-war basket of goods, is rising real earnings and falling disposable income. None of that is applicable to the actual reality that Russians themselves report, you are just flat out theorizing what 'should happen' with absolutely no connection to the actual reality. Everything you say and believe is in line with things like 'ghost of kiev', "ukraine will reach Moscow in a month", "Russia wanted to conquer Ukraine in 3 months but it couldn't", "Chinese economy is set for a hard landing (yet) again" and all that sh*t. ... Really, you people live in la la land. Your worst enemy is not Russia or China. Its you and your delirious 'I prefer to believe what I like to hear" attitude. Downvote this post. It will make the reality go away.

mlindner 2y ago

I think this was also intended to help push the last foreign companies out of Russia. If they can't do currency exchanges easily then it increases reasons to get out of country.