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I find the idea pretty wild that we should be able to predict earthquakes within days. My understanding is that earthquakes can be predicted like bridge collaps
by lolc 2y ago
I find the idea pretty wild that we should be able to predict earthquakes within days. My understanding is that earthquakes can be predicted like bridge collapses can be predicted. You can collect signs of a developing fault, but the uncertainty of when it rips is measured in years. And if your model is lacking for the specific instance, you'll misjudge the chances by orders of magnitude.
So I read papers like this one as hopeless fishing expeditions. But if the fishing expedition turns up with a good catch anyway, people will look into it more. Unfortunately I'm not versed enough to asses their catch. Will wait for a geologist friend for context.
- JPLeRouzic 2y agoI am a layperson, but it seems to me that scientists are discussing these topics for at least a decade (for example since L'Aquila in 2009): See section 2.2: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.03652 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.03652 or https://arxiv.org/abs/0905.2782 https://arxiv.org/abs/0905.2782 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2205.06592 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2205.06592 https://arxiv.org/abs/0910.0797 https://arxiv.org/abs/0910.0797
- T-A 2y agoLonger than that. This guy, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didier_Sornette https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didier_Sornette made a name for himself a couple of decades ago with an approach to predicting earthquakes, financial crashes and other catastrophes: https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.022581999 https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.022581999
- Loughla 2y agoWhy do I think that he is responsible for writing his own Wikipedia entry?
- heavenlyblue 2y agoLooks like a total whack with loads of credentials
- gravescale 2y agoOh he absolutely did: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Didier_Sornette&action=history&offset=20180126220327%7C822527966&limit=100 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Didier_Sornette&a... Any edits he made that aren't his own page are editing in references to his own work in other articles.
- Pompidou 2y agoFun fact : 'sornette' means 'poppycock' in french.
- dist-epoch 2y agoWe can predict volcanos erupting within days. And this would not be "predicting", but more "noticing that the process already started"
- lolc 2y agoYes, from what I know for a volcano we have a good geological model of what is going on, and reliable ways of measuring the relevant parameters. Still predicting an eruption is an achievement, and predicting the not eruption especially so. For earthquakes we are lacking both in models and in measurements. We don't know whether there is "a process started" in the days before a quake. This paper is looking for one.