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Point 2 and 3 are identical, no? And it's not like those laid off can't start their own, disruptive ventures. As employees get more efficient, it'll be easier

Point 2 and 3 are identical, no? And it's not like those laid off can't start their own, disruptive ventures. As employees get more efficient, it'll be easier to run small, nimble companies that take on the big leagues. I'm quite optimistic about all of it.

29athrowaway 2y ago
I am not so optimistic about it. AI will create a large power asymmetry which will inevitably result in large scale abuse with no limits. In almost every economy where the elite does not need the support of the population to be wealthy and to exercise territorial control, the result is almost always a brutal dictatorship where the population is weakened and disarmed so they do not revolt.
- czl 2y ago
  Yes, the general term for this phenomenon is the "resource curse," also known as the "paradox of plenty." This term refers to the situation where countries with an abundance of natural resources (like minerals, oil, or gas) tend to have less economic growth, less democracy, and worse development outcomes than countries with fewer natural resources. This can happen because the elites who control the resources do not need to rely on the population for economic productivity and can maintain power without public support, often leading to authoritarian regimes and social inequities. The elites in the countries that suffer this rely on countries who are buying from them and if democracies made it illegal to do business with such countries many would not be sustainable. And the curse can be avoided. Norway has successfully avoided the resource curse through creation of a sovereign wealth fund (Government Pension Fund Global) to manage surplus oil revenues but to accomplish this it had a long-standing tradition of democracy and rule of law ensuring government accountability.
  - 29athrowaway 2y ago
    Norway is a country with low population. Most difficult problems a country faces are proportional to population size. Using Norway as an example incurs the risk of following examples that do not scale to larger population sizes. AI could cause a problem similar to the resource curse. Because you could have a strong service economy while having 99% unemployment.
    - czl 2y ago
      Above I said Norway "had a long-standing tradition of democracy and rule of law ensuring government accountability". I think it is that tradition that matters far more than having a small vs large population. As far as population goes I think what matters is how homogenous the population is such that there is a general feeling of all being "in the same tribe". A population that has large identifiable groups (blacks, whites, latios, asians, Jews, Indians, ...) can have these groups not caring for each other and even working against each other vs sharing and cooperating with each other. I think multiculturalism is far better than ethno-nationalism however it is also far harder than ethno-nationalism.
HeatrayEnjoyer 2y ago
Economy of scale and power imbalance increases with more advanced technology, not the other way. A true AGI would allow a single person to replace all other humans. Robot soldiers are bulletproof, cheap to build, and never refuse orders to kill.
- vasco 2y ago
  I disagree with the notion that power imbalance increases with technology. As time progressed and our technology evolved, the balance of power between a regular human and the human with the most power in the world have gotten closer, not further apart, in my opinion.
  - czl 2y ago
    Compare the “power” of someone who can launch an arsenal of nuclear weapons or release a new global pandemic virus or organize a trip to mars or moon. You think in the past kings etc were as “powerful” relative to average people?
  - 29athrowaway 2y ago
    AI will be able to automatically find gaps in legislation, find all possible taxation loopholes, find dominant trading patterns that extract all wealth, evolve ads into automated sales agents, automate warfare and cyberwarfare... And who yields that power and can use it with little consequences will do it. Why should elites allow the global population to grow indefinetely if it threatens their survival? Predictably the elites will use their advantage to compete against the masses for resources to ensure their continued survival.
  - HeatrayEnjoyer 2y ago
    I can't possibly understand how anyone could think this. Try living somewhere drone strikes can kill any number of people at any time with no warning and no possible retribution. You don't even know what the person who liked you looks like. For most of human history to kill a man you had to look him in the eye.
OtomotO 2y ago
> And it's not like those laid off can't start their own, disruptive ventures. That's a totally unrealistic take... on the scale of "communism". Not every person is a perfect communist, and not every person is a business man. Now I know you may say that only some need to create disruptive ventures and hire others then, but that's also unrealistic due to power imbalances. What will turn the wheel is how capitalism works right now: If too many people are unemployed and too few people can afford your mass market product, someone will need to give the unemployed a job or money so they can participate in the "free" market.

29athrowaway 2y ago

I am not so optimistic about it. AI will create a large power asymmetry which will inevitably result in large scale abuse with no limits. In almost every economy where the elite does not need the support of the population to be wealthy and to exercise territorial control, the result is almost always a brutal dictatorship where the population is weakened and disarmed so they do not revolt.

czl 2y ago
Yes, the general term for this phenomenon is the "resource curse," also known as the "paradox of plenty." This term refers to the situation where countries with an abundance of natural resources (like minerals, oil, or gas) tend to have less economic growth, less democracy, and worse development outcomes than countries with fewer natural resources. This can happen because the elites who control the resources do not need to rely on the population for economic productivity and can maintain power without public support, often leading to authoritarian regimes and social inequities. The elites in the countries that suffer this rely on countries who are buying from them and if democracies made it illegal to do business with such countries many would not be sustainable. And the curse can be avoided. Norway has successfully avoided the resource curse through creation of a sovereign wealth fund (Government Pension Fund Global) to manage surplus oil revenues but to accomplish this it had a long-standing tradition of democracy and rule of law ensuring government accountability.
- 29athrowaway 2y ago
  Norway is a country with low population. Most difficult problems a country faces are proportional to population size. Using Norway as an example incurs the risk of following examples that do not scale to larger population sizes. AI could cause a problem similar to the resource curse. Because you could have a strong service economy while having 99% unemployment.
  - czl 2y ago
    Above I said Norway "had a long-standing tradition of democracy and rule of law ensuring government accountability". I think it is that tradition that matters far more than having a small vs large population. As far as population goes I think what matters is how homogenous the population is such that there is a general feeling of all being "in the same tribe". A population that has large identifiable groups (blacks, whites, latios, asians, Jews, Indians, ...) can have these groups not caring for each other and even working against each other vs sharing and cooperating with each other. I think multiculturalism is far better than ethno-nationalism however it is also far harder than ethno-nationalism.

HeatrayEnjoyer 2y ago

Economy of scale and power imbalance increases with more advanced technology, not the other way. A true AGI would allow a single person to replace all other humans. Robot soldiers are bulletproof, cheap to build, and never refuse orders to kill.

vasco 2y ago
I disagree with the notion that power imbalance increases with technology. As time progressed and our technology evolved, the balance of power between a regular human and the human with the most power in the world have gotten closer, not further apart, in my opinion.
- czl 2y ago
  Compare the “power” of someone who can launch an arsenal of nuclear weapons or release a new global pandemic virus or organize a trip to mars or moon. You think in the past kings etc were as “powerful” relative to average people?
- 29athrowaway 2y ago
  AI will be able to automatically find gaps in legislation, find all possible taxation loopholes, find dominant trading patterns that extract all wealth, evolve ads into automated sales agents, automate warfare and cyberwarfare... And who yields that power and can use it with little consequences will do it. Why should elites allow the global population to grow indefinetely if it threatens their survival? Predictably the elites will use their advantage to compete against the masses for resources to ensure their continued survival.
- HeatrayEnjoyer 2y ago
  I can't possibly understand how anyone could think this. Try living somewhere drone strikes can kill any number of people at any time with no warning and no possible retribution. You don't even know what the person who liked you looks like. For most of human history to kill a man you had to look him in the eye.

OtomotO 2y ago

> And it's not like those laid off can't start their own, disruptive ventures. That's a totally unrealistic take... on the scale of "communism". Not every person is a perfect communist, and not every person is a business man. Now I know you may say that only some need to create disruptive ventures and hire others then, but that's also unrealistic due to power imbalances. What will turn the wheel is how capitalism works right now: If too many people are unemployed and too few people can afford your mass market product, someone will need to give the unemployed a job or money so they can participate in the "free" market.