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I don't think that 2008 housing crisis had any serious black swans around it, instead of bad planning caused by chasing the dollar. The point of a black swan t
by thriftwy 2y ago
I don't think that 2008 housing crisis had any serious black swans around it, instead of bad planning caused by chasing the dollar.
The point of a black swan that there doesn't have to be a cause.
- ben_w 2y ago> The point of a black swan that there doesn't have to be a cause. That's the first I've heard that suggested. It's a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight; based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did not exist which stopped being used that way in 1697 when people found actual black swans.
- pjlegato 2y agoThe point isn't that black swans don't have causes. The point is that nobody is expecting those particular causes at all when the event happens, due to prior assumptions being wrong.