This article[1] does a good job of laying out the argument from trends and arguing that taking the trends seriously suggests reaching AGI in a few years. Admit

This article[1] does a good job of laying out the argument from trends and arguing that taking the trends seriously suggests reaching AGI in a few years. Admittedly, my own argument in favor of near-term AGI is much less sophisticated but is also largely based on extrapolating trends and noting the leaps in capabilities that can come from singular architectural innovations. The GPT family has been amazingly productive, and they result from largely a single architectural innovation. They have glaring deficiencies, but their failures are fairly well understood and overcoming them are basically engineering problems at this point. Whereas 10 years ago no one had any idea how to get from the SOTA at the time to AGI, I see a clear path to it from here. [1] https://situational-awareness.ai/from-gpt-4-to-agi/ https://situational-awareness.ai/from-gpt-4-to-agi/