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I believe in diversification and index funds for most people, but this seems overdone. The issue here is that sometimes if you procrastinate about diversifying

I believe in diversification and index funds for most people, but this seems overdone. The issue here is that sometimes if you procrastinate about diversifying, it pays off very well. As a Google employee (who joined after IPO), it was by far my best investment and funded my retirement. I guess that's accidental gambling. I did have other investments.

lurking_swe 2y ago
Yes that’s accidental gambling. Or what i like to call “at the right place at the right time”. Ask a Yahoo employee how that same plan would have worked out for them. That being said, good for you. :)
- mgfist 2y ago
  Mostly agreed, but as an employee you do have some semblance of material non-public information that gives you a structural edge in assessing the stock. (This probably works better at a 1k-5k company than a Google/FB, but I can't say because I haven't worked at the big faangs). I've benefited financially from having a good sense of how well things are going and holding/selling accordingly (within the confines of the law and blackout periods, of course).
  - panopticon 2y ago
    > non-public information that gives you a structural edge in assessing the stock This can also cut the other direction too. I had a slightly negative sentiment about Google during my tenure there due to the organization I was in. When earnings call season rolled around it didn't matter since the ads revenue line always dominated everything else.
nealchandra 2y ago
The way you can test if it's accidental gambling is by answering the following: If you had worked at a different company with pure cash comp equivalent to your RSUs, would you have invested the same $$ in Google stock? Or would you have invested it instead in an aggressive but diversified portfolio (e.g. 100% S&P 500 or even just a bucket of blue-chip tech stocks). I am confident that for the vast majority of tech employees they would choose the latter if they were operating in a pure cash regime.
- skybrian 2y ago
  No, I definitely wouldn't have invested so much in Google. However, I'm not sure how much to attribute to it being a default choice, versus the differences between an inside versus an outside view. It's easier to be comfortable investing long-term in something you know well. While there's a lot I'll never know about Google, I think I understand the company somewhat better than others. For example, I can discount a lot of news articles as being written by people who don't really understand the culture. If I hadn't worked there, I might worry more. That's less and less true, though, as much has changed since I left. And for investment purposes, maybe that bias only seemed to be helpful, versus an outside view?

lurking_swe 2y ago

Yes that’s accidental gambling. Or what i like to call “at the right place at the right time”. Ask a Yahoo employee how that same plan would have worked out for them. That being said, good for you. :)

mgfist 2y ago
Mostly agreed, but as an employee you do have some semblance of material non-public information that gives you a structural edge in assessing the stock. (This probably works better at a 1k-5k company than a Google/FB, but I can't say because I haven't worked at the big faangs). I've benefited financially from having a good sense of how well things are going and holding/selling accordingly (within the confines of the law and blackout periods, of course).
- panopticon 2y ago
  > non-public information that gives you a structural edge in assessing the stock This can also cut the other direction too. I had a slightly negative sentiment about Google during my tenure there due to the organization I was in. When earnings call season rolled around it didn't matter since the ads revenue line always dominated everything else.

nealchandra 2y ago

The way you can test if it's accidental gambling is by answering the following: If you had worked at a different company with pure cash comp equivalent to your RSUs, would you have invested the same $$ in Google stock? Or would you have invested it instead in an aggressive but diversified portfolio (e.g. 100% S&P 500 or even just a bucket of blue-chip tech stocks). I am confident that for the vast majority of tech employees they would choose the latter if they were operating in a pure cash regime.

skybrian 2y ago
No, I definitely wouldn't have invested so much in Google. However, I'm not sure how much to attribute to it being a default choice, versus the differences between an inside versus an outside view. It's easier to be comfortable investing long-term in something you know well. While there's a lot I'll never know about Google, I think I understand the company somewhat better than others. For example, I can discount a lot of news articles as being written by people who don't really understand the culture. If I hadn't worked there, I might worry more. That's less and less true, though, as much has changed since I left. And for investment purposes, maybe that bias only seemed to be helpful, versus an outside view?