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What are the most likely scenarios? 1) The Covid virus ended up in the Wuhan wet market from an animal for sale there, brought with the virus from the wild and

by jmpman 2y ago

What are the most likely scenarios? 1) The Covid virus ended up in the Wuhan wet market from an animal for sale there, brought with the virus from the wild and got introduced into a human. Sure, that’s possible, but why there, and why at that time? 2) A worker from the Wuhan Covid Lab got infected with a sample that had been collected in the wild previously, and transmitted it to people or animals in the Wuhan wet market which then set off the pandemic. 3) The virus was engineered in the lab for gain of function, making it more likely to be transmitted between people, and then accidentally infected a worker in the lab who went to the wet market, infected people or animals there, which set off the pandemic. I believe these are the three hypothesis which we are discussing. 1) possible, but seems unlikely. 2) seemed extremely possible. The lab is known to contain samples of Covid. It’s right next door to the wet market. 3) Gain of function happened to introduce exactly the capability this virus needed to infect others. Hanlon’s Razor - never attribute to Malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity. Suggests that #2 is more likely than #3. As for the wet market, I’d assume there are 10,000 similar wet markets in China. Only 1 is next door to a lab which studies covid. Why would this one wet market be the source, instead of the other 9,999? If you have other hypothesis, happy to consider other ways this virus was introduced. But, suggesting that it didn’t come from the Wuhan lab, feels like Chinese propaganda trying to gaslight.

kelseyfrog 2y ago
All of these are addressed by Peter Miller in his debate with Saar Wilf[1]. What you're proposing isn't probabilistically sound. I'd really encourage you to watch the whole thing. They dive into likelihoods in much greater depth. 1. https://www.youtube.com/@tgof137/videos https://www.youtube.com/@tgof137/videos
- jmpman 2y ago
  Just watched. My proposals are probabilistically sound. https://youtu.be/6sOcdexHKnk?si=6qlqOHf9Dwe_j3vc https://youtu.be/6sOcdexHKnk?si=6qlqOHf9Dwe_j3vc 3min 10 seconds “The only lab leak scenario that fits is just someone going straight from the lab to the market” So, let’s just assume there was an infected scientist from the Wuhan lab, but instead of him/her going to the Wuhan wet market, they went to another market 800 meters from the lab, and that was the source of the outbreak. These talking heads would then be telling me the same infinitesimal probability of it coming from the Covid lab. The people with access to a known Covid source are literally 800 meters from the Wuhan wet market. An asymptomatic scientist walked to the Wuhan market, spent some time at one stall, and then went home. I find no improbable scenarios there.
  - jmpman 2y ago
    Oh, but they do state that the infection cluster would have started in the lab. I disagree with this premise, as the lab workers are likely all wearing PPE. Just one had a protocol lapse and got infected. The rest were protected by their masks. Infected lab worker gets sick, but nobody else in the lab.
  - kelseyfrog 2y ago
    If "why there, and why at that time?" is a valid scissor, then it can't just apply to some scenarios and not others. It must be a universal scissor. > An asymptomatic scientist walked to the Wuhan market, spent some time at one stall, and then went home. I find no improbable scenarios there. Why there, and why at that time? To me at least the probability of a virologist traveling to the wet market and then spreading the virus as if it were originated by zoonosis is strictly less probable than the scenario where it's simply zoonosis.
    - jmpman 2y ago
      Then why was this virus only found at this wet market. I’m assuming there are 10k other wet markets in China. How many others found different strains of Covid?
      - kelseyfrog 2y ago
        This question could be applied to every other case of zoonosis and reach the conclusion that zoonosis does not exist. The expectation that explanations be satisfying is not an unbiased razor. An infected animal had a chance encounter with a person that resulted in a transmissible infection. The desire to uncover who this is and when is admirable, but again. I suggest we apply the same standard to the lab leak hypothesis, there are plenty of labs why this one and why covid? Again, it's a satisfying explanation, but satisfiability and reality are orthogonal. Shall we need to track the lab leak down to a specific lab employee and ask them why it was leaked by them even if inadvertently?
        jmpman 2y ago

by jmpman 2y ago

kelseyfrog 2y ago

All of these are addressed by Peter Miller in his debate with Saar Wilf[1]. What you're proposing isn't probabilistically sound. I'd really encourage you to watch the whole thing. They dive into likelihoods in much greater depth. 1. https://www.youtube.com/@tgof137/videos https://www.youtube.com/@tgof137/videos

jmpman 2y ago
Just watched. My proposals are probabilistically sound. https://youtu.be/6sOcdexHKnk?si=6qlqOHf9Dwe_j3vc https://youtu.be/6sOcdexHKnk?si=6qlqOHf9Dwe_j3vc 3min 10 seconds “The only lab leak scenario that fits is just someone going straight from the lab to the market” So, let’s just assume there was an infected scientist from the Wuhan lab, but instead of him/her going to the Wuhan wet market, they went to another market 800 meters from the lab, and that was the source of the outbreak. These talking heads would then be telling me the same infinitesimal probability of it coming from the Covid lab. The people with access to a known Covid source are literally 800 meters from the Wuhan wet market. An asymptomatic scientist walked to the Wuhan market, spent some time at one stall, and then went home. I find no improbable scenarios there.
- jmpman 2y ago
  Oh, but they do state that the infection cluster would have started in the lab. I disagree with this premise, as the lab workers are likely all wearing PPE. Just one had a protocol lapse and got infected. The rest were protected by their masks. Infected lab worker gets sick, but nobody else in the lab.
- kelseyfrog 2y ago
  If "why there, and why at that time?" is a valid scissor, then it can't just apply to some scenarios and not others. It must be a universal scissor. > An asymptomatic scientist walked to the Wuhan market, spent some time at one stall, and then went home. I find no improbable scenarios there. Why there, and why at that time? To me at least the probability of a virologist traveling to the wet market and then spreading the virus as if it were originated by zoonosis is strictly less probable than the scenario where it's simply zoonosis.
  - jmpman 2y ago
    Then why was this virus only found at this wet market. I’m assuming there are 10k other wet markets in China. How many others found different strains of Covid?
    - kelseyfrog 2y ago
      This question could be applied to every other case of zoonosis and reach the conclusion that zoonosis does not exist. The expectation that explanations be satisfying is not an unbiased razor. An infected animal had a chance encounter with a person that resulted in a transmissible infection. The desire to uncover who this is and when is admirable, but again. I suggest we apply the same standard to the lab leak hypothesis, there are plenty of labs why this one and why covid? Again, it's a satisfying explanation, but satisfiability and reality are orthogonal. Shall we need to track the lab leak down to a specific lab employee and ask them why it was leaked by them even if inadvertently?
      - jmpman 2y ago