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There are multiple terawatt hours per year of committed battery factory investments for the next few years. Current yearly production is only about one twh. Wit

There are multiple terawatt hours per year of committed battery factory investments for the next few years. Current yearly production is only about one twh. With production outstripping demand, we can look forward to prices coming down further. Committed of course does not mean these factories will get built. Quite a few of them will be a combination of redundant and obsolete before they are built. Bloomberg NEF is tracking close to 8 twh worth of battery manufacturing investments for 2025 with demand being estimated at only 1.6 twh. There's a battery bubble happening and this is good news. https://about.bnef.com/blog/china-already-makes-as-many-batteries-as-the-entire-world-wants/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/china-already-makes-as-many-batt... Also, most of these batteries are just sitting there are relatively high charge states (70-80%) not being utilized at all. The point here is that we won't have a battery shortage and a growing amount of potential energy locked up in charged batteries. Keeping these batteries charged is also not that big of a challenge because we're mostly not even discharging them. Cars on average only drive around 14K miles per year. That's only about 3.5 mwh of energy needed per year (at 4 mile/kwh). Or about 59 charging cycles for a 60kwh battery. Batteries also last quite long. So we have this builtup of tens and soon hundreds of twh of battery just sitting there in cars, trucks, grid storage, etc. So with all that happening in the background, swappable batteries are a bit redundant. Also when considering their potential to grid stabilization.

burnished 2y ago
Do you have an estimate for their stable life? I don't have an intuition for it and am curious
- jillesvangurp 2y ago
  15-20 years depending on usage. Mostly, EV manufacturers are very comfortable offering 8 years or 100K miles on their batteries (whichever comes first). Meaning they don't anticipate failures to be a regular thing before that; or long after that. Most batteries should last a lot longer. Most EVs produced ever (i.e. in the last 15 years) are still driving with their original batteries. So that should build some confidence. Some early cars with relatively primitive battery management obviously are getting their batteries replaced. But even then, it's not going to break the bank and extends the lifetime of the vehicle by a decade+. A 4K battery replacement for a 12 year old Nissan Leaf to double its range doesn't sound like a horrible deal, for example. Replacing a 20kwh battery with a 40kwh one for that money is a good deal and extends the life of the vehicle by about 10+ years. Of course it all depends on battery chemistries and battery management. There has been a lot of improvement on both dimensions. Mostly I don't think there will be a lot of surprises on this front as this is a well studied thing.
  - nkingsy 2y ago
    4k for a leaf battery? Last I checked it was way more than that.
    - throwup238 2y ago
      And they were (still are?) having supply issues. My family ended up buying a Tesla last year instead of replacing a Nissan Leaf battery because the waiting list was something like six months long.
    - jillesvangurp 2y ago
      https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/nissan-leaf-battery-replacement-cost-explained/ https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/nissan-leaf-battery-repl... These guys cite between 3 and 5K for the 24kwh battery. The 40kwh battery is a bit more expensive.

burnished 2y ago

Do you have an estimate for their stable life? I don't have an intuition for it and am curious

jillesvangurp 2y ago
15-20 years depending on usage. Mostly, EV manufacturers are very comfortable offering 8 years or 100K miles on their batteries (whichever comes first). Meaning they don't anticipate failures to be a regular thing before that; or long after that. Most batteries should last a lot longer. Most EVs produced ever (i.e. in the last 15 years) are still driving with their original batteries. So that should build some confidence. Some early cars with relatively primitive battery management obviously are getting their batteries replaced. But even then, it's not going to break the bank and extends the lifetime of the vehicle by a decade+. A 4K battery replacement for a 12 year old Nissan Leaf to double its range doesn't sound like a horrible deal, for example. Replacing a 20kwh battery with a 40kwh one for that money is a good deal and extends the life of the vehicle by about 10+ years. Of course it all depends on battery chemistries and battery management. There has been a lot of improvement on both dimensions. Mostly I don't think there will be a lot of surprises on this front as this is a well studied thing.
- nkingsy 2y ago
  4k for a leaf battery? Last I checked it was way more than that.
  - throwup238 2y ago
    And they were (still are?) having supply issues. My family ended up buying a Tesla last year instead of replacing a Nissan Leaf battery because the waiting list was something like six months long.
  - jillesvangurp 2y ago
    https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/nissan-leaf-battery-replacement-cost-explained/ https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/nissan-leaf-battery-repl... These guys cite between 3 and 5K for the 24kwh battery. The 40kwh battery is a bit more expensive.