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It seems to me that the industries most kinds of 99% businesses enter is zero-sum, which means helping new businesses only hurts the profit of other new busines
by intellegacy 14y ago
It seems to me that the industries most kinds of 99% businesses enter is zero-sum, which means helping new businesses only hurts the profit of other new businesses or incumbents. Ergo I question what value from an overall economic perspective helping individual entrants to the 99% market holds.
(Here I use as examples the industries defined from the article: construction, retail, health care, lodging, food services)
For instance, if 10 businesses are started, and there is only room in the market for 3, then 7 will inevitably fail. It is possible to improve each's individual odds of success, but to what end? Unless the market these businesses are in grows, any successfully-started new business only increases competition for the others. So lets say that we improve the odds for these new entrepreneurs by educating them. We will also assume incumbents have access to the same knowledge and benefit equally. If the new competitors all enter the market together, all we have done is raise the competitiveness level in the industry, and the odds of failing are still the same.
This is what Peter Thiel discusses in his "perfect competition" argument. (If you haven't read his CS183 notes yet, please do so. They're insightful).
Peter Thiel likens competition to athletes or soldiers beating each other up. They compete to win and that is what they know how to do. But in the end there is only one victor. The rest are losers. And if you improve the competitiveness level of these athletes, all you have done is make the competition fiercer. Now that could be a good thing as it could provide better value for consumers. But the businesses themselves don't benefit from that!
All this program is doing is making more perfect competitors, although what will probably happen is not all will benefit the same amount, as certain businesses will learn and apply these lessons better than others. But from a birds eye perspective, the result is stil the same: the same number of failing businesses. Even if these new businesses you help succeed do in fact "make it", they don't increase the size of the industry (barring technological breakthroughs). They only add more players to a limited pie.
People by nature care more about themselves. Thus they care more about entrepreneurship rather than innovation per se. Entrepreneurship without innovation is about beating up the other guy, simply outcompeting him through energy or maneuvering. Innovation is about doing something better, freeing up time or resources to do other things, which grows the pie for all.
In summary:
Sure a new business may add value by providing a better service than the competitor it beats, but the overall wealth pie of this nation doesn't increase. Encouraging just entrepreneurship without technological innovation is not that useful from a macro perspective. What we need are new entrants who change the game via technological or process breakthroughs. These are precisely the kind of companies that Peter Thiel seems most interested in, according to his CS183 lectures. And I submit that these are the kinds of businesses startups should focus on. Not the other 99% which only increase competition for everyone else.
This is why R&D and innovation are the key to growing the economy. Simply calling for more entrepreneurs, without a corresponding emphasis on innovation, is a flawed long-term strategy.
- laglad 14y agoAll true. But with a customer development focus, they'll see failure more quickly with less resources. For example, instead of renovating your restaurant and reopening it with your personal conviction that it is now better, why not test different redesigns before investing. I'd call it teaching the scientific method.
- run4yourlives 14y agoI'm more than a little confused by your comment. In several areas either you or Thiel (I'm not familiar with his thinking enough to know which) are completely disregarding some very basic economics... It seems to me that the industries most kinds of 99% businesses enter is zero-sum Um, no. Nothing in the economy is zero sum. Wealth is constantly being created and transferred. I think you are confusing this with the idea of a mature-market at an industry level, but those markets are almost non-existent because they destroy themselves like anti-matter. Unless the market these businesses are in grows, any successfully-started new business only increases competition for the others. Well, for one thing, if the market isn't growing we are in a recession, and recessions simply aren't permanent states. Recessions destroy themselves, because they are simply forced efficiency finders. Secondly, increasing competition increases pressure to become more efficient and/or innovative, which in turn drives market growth. The whole idea of helping and soliciting help in business is an act of innovation. In short, your initial point - that of a zero sum market - is flawed, and therefore all your other arguments are too. Increasing the quantity of entrepreneurs by default increases the quality, because it increases the pressure to compete, and therefore leads to the very innovation you feel is the real solution. You are arguing against the very solution you seek.
- _delirium 14y agoI don't have a problem with most of that explanation, but am somewhat skeptical of the last point. I don't think there is necessarily a linear relationship between quantity and quality that holds in all market regimes, across the whole range of possible states. Dynamical systems (such as markets) often have tipping points where things get wonky, so it'd at least require some empirical evidence that that isn't the case.