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There will probably be a bifurcation here: - Lower-end restaurants adopt cooking robots and make it difficult to see the kitchen from the customer area - High

There will probably be a bifurcation here: - Lower-end restaurants adopt cooking robots and make it difficult to see the kitchen from the customer area - Higher-end restaurants make their humans even more visible and push a hibachi/omakase model where the chef makes the meals in front of you "Human made" is going to be the premium brand keyword of 2030.

ghaff 2y ago
It's probably inevitable that things with a large labor component either become more automated/industrialized or become more of a luxury good (or mostly fade away entirely).
- ericd 2y ago
  Yeah, can’t raise everyone’s living standards without making human labor relatively expensive in material terms.
- forgetfreeman 2y ago
  Inevitable only if you accept the premise that our society's primary function is and should remain enhancing shareholder value.
  - Turing_Machine 2y ago
    This was happening long before corporations were even a thing. At one point, roughly 90% of the human race worked in manual agriculture, generally as some form of unfree labor (serfs or slaves), with most of the other 10% as foot soldiers, then a thin veneer of nobles and priests at the top. Replacing human labor with machinery is pretty much the only thing that has ever improved the general standard of living, whether they are shareholders or not.
    - forgetfreeman 2y ago
      1. An error doesn't become a mistake until you refuse to correct it. 2. Comparing modern economics to serfdom is ridiculous on it's face. 3. What, exactly, are you thinking automated career tracks are going to get replaced with this time around? Keeping in mind you've got Industrial, AG, manufacturing, service, and white collar sectors, the first three are already heavily automated. Automating the last two results in massive unemployment. I'm not hearing any push for realocation of wealth so yeah, how exactly does this not completely brick the economy? While we're on the topic of "improving quality of life" how do you frame the near total economic collapse of rural communities in the US and the transition from a single breadwinner middle class to basically mandatory dual income households as "improving quality of living"?
      - Turing_Machine 2y ago
        > 1. An error doesn't become a mistake until you refuse to correct it. It wasn't an "error". It was the way things had to be, as shown by pretty much every society that advanced past the hunter-gatherer or roaming barbarian stage. Europe. India. Japan. China. The Americas. All had "nobles" and serfs/slaves/peasants doing hand agricultural labor. Even as far back as Mesopotamia and ancient Egypt! > 2. Comparing modern economics to serfdom is ridiculous on it's face. Blind assertion is not proof. > 3. What, exactly, are you thinking automated career tracks are going to get replaced with this time around? Dunno, but it's happened every time so far. No one hand-weaves cloth any more (except as a hobby). Essentially no one is a blacksmith any more. Hundreds of professions from broom makers to fullers have been replaced by automation. Imagine someone asking this question at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. It's not possible that they would have said "programmer" or "airline pilot" or "open heart surgeon", or even "convenience store clerk" or "Uber driver". That's been the history of technology for millennia now. Probably way back in the Paleolithic there was a person like you grumbling that this newfangled flint-knapping was going to put all the pointed stick makers out of work.
        forgetfreeman 2y ago
        Yeah no you don't. Your model of productivity and QoL improvement went off a cliff in the 60s. Since then we have consistently seen stagnant wages, narrowing of social mobility, increases in household debt, increases in required workload to maintain "middle-class" lifestyles, and economic catastrophe in rural communities. Automation in the 70s and 80s gutted manufacturing jobs with no obvious replacement, and that was before entire supply chains were offshored. Advances in ag tech combined with massive consolidation in the industry gutted rural ag communities with no obvious replacement. There are no combination of industries in the US that are reporting a shortfall of ~27M employees, which is the estimated headcount in the combined services industry currently. I see your coy ad hominem bs trying to frame me as a neo-luddite and I'm not impressed.
- piva00 2y ago
  One can see a glimpse of that in societies with small populations where labour is expensive, like in the Nordics.
  - ghaff 2y ago
    And of course the converse where low-skill labor is relatively cheap.
    - piva00 2y ago
      Exactly, I've a close experience with this constrast, I'm originally from Brazil and moved to Sweden some 10 years ago. In Brazil where labour is cheap you will see a lot of staff at bars, restaurants, shops, etc. on a ratio that seems absolutely overstaffed for the amount of customers. While in Sweden is the complete opposite, in a fully packed large bar you will probably see 4-8 staff members (including guards) for the whole bar, including kitchen.
      - rglullis 2y ago
        And there is some conservation of economic output. The overstaffed kitchen is slow, untrained, has little autonomy to make snap decisions (payment machine is broken? Sorry, come back later). The small crew will make collectively make the same as the larger one, and will be able to serve as many or more people.
        ghaff 2y ago
        Maybe. The overstaffed kitchen also has more slack if someone needs to go home sick or has some family emergency. We saw during the pandemic some of the downside of finely-tuned supply chains. But, yes, it's a balancing act and does depend on the cost of a bit of extra slack or "just in case" margin.
yieldcrv 2y ago
> "Human made" is going to be the premium brand keyword of 2030. I think it will be a niche. People are overindexing on how much they like things done with “soul” when they cant even define it fungible consciousness concept adds funny spices to food too
csa 2y ago
> Higher-end restaurants make their humans even more visible and push a hibachi/omakase model… I agree with all of your points, but… These Japanese words seem to have taken on vastly new meanings in the US. 1. Hibachi is a charcoal brazier/grill, not a griddle. I think you are referring to a teppan(yaki) (which is a flat griddle). Teppan for making food in front of customers can be found in places like okonomiyaki restaurants and higher end steak houses (subdued affairs minus the Benihana “tricks” by the chefs). 2. Omakase is just chef’s choice. It is not related to whether the preparation can be seen or not. I’m guessing you mean simply sitting at the “sushi bar”/counter seat rather than at a table. One can watch their food being made at a classic diner counter seat as well. Note that one of the best sushi experiences I’ve had in the US (outside of LA in a converted house) was omakase sushi in which we never saw the chef. All that said, “open kitchens” will almost certainly become signs of a premium dining experience.
- keiferski 2y ago
  Yeah, they are definitely different from their original meanings. It’s my impression that in the US, hibachi usually means “guy cooks steak and similar food in front of you” and omakase usually means “sushi is made in front of you while you sit at a bar.” The words refer more to the style of restaurant or presentation method, which can probably be tied into historical American dining culture in some way or another. A bit more on the hibachi controversy: https://selftaughtjapanese.com/2018/10/09/a-confusing-japanese-loanword-in-english-hibachi-it-may-not-mean-what-you-think-it-does/ https://selftaughtjapanese.com/2018/10/09/a-confusing-japane...
tithe 2y ago
I imagine the "lower-end" will be capped via government mandate preventing a workforce from being more than X% of robotic labor. ...that is, until the robotic chefs bribe the politicians at the Capitol Grille by giving them more french fries with their burgers to support laws for robot rights!

ghaff 2y ago

It's probably inevitable that things with a large labor component either become more automated/industrialized or become more of a luxury good (or mostly fade away entirely).

ericd 2y ago
Yeah, can’t raise everyone’s living standards without making human labor relatively expensive in material terms.
forgetfreeman 2y ago
Inevitable only if you accept the premise that our society's primary function is and should remain enhancing shareholder value.
- Turing_Machine 2y ago
  This was happening long before corporations were even a thing. At one point, roughly 90% of the human race worked in manual agriculture, generally as some form of unfree labor (serfs or slaves), with most of the other 10% as foot soldiers, then a thin veneer of nobles and priests at the top. Replacing human labor with machinery is pretty much the only thing that has ever improved the general standard of living, whether they are shareholders or not.
  - forgetfreeman 2y ago
    1. An error doesn't become a mistake until you refuse to correct it. 2. Comparing modern economics to serfdom is ridiculous on it's face. 3. What, exactly, are you thinking automated career tracks are going to get replaced with this time around? Keeping in mind you've got Industrial, AG, manufacturing, service, and white collar sectors, the first three are already heavily automated. Automating the last two results in massive unemployment. I'm not hearing any push for realocation of wealth so yeah, how exactly does this not completely brick the economy? While we're on the topic of "improving quality of life" how do you frame the near total economic collapse of rural communities in the US and the transition from a single breadwinner middle class to basically mandatory dual income households as "improving quality of living"?
    - Turing_Machine 2y ago
      > 1. An error doesn't become a mistake until you refuse to correct it. It wasn't an "error". It was the way things had to be, as shown by pretty much every society that advanced past the hunter-gatherer or roaming barbarian stage. Europe. India. Japan. China. The Americas. All had "nobles" and serfs/slaves/peasants doing hand agricultural labor. Even as far back as Mesopotamia and ancient Egypt! > 2. Comparing modern economics to serfdom is ridiculous on it's face. Blind assertion is not proof. > 3. What, exactly, are you thinking automated career tracks are going to get replaced with this time around? Dunno, but it's happened every time so far. No one hand-weaves cloth any more (except as a hobby). Essentially no one is a blacksmith any more. Hundreds of professions from broom makers to fullers have been replaced by automation. Imagine someone asking this question at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. It's not possible that they would have said "programmer" or "airline pilot" or "open heart surgeon", or even "convenience store clerk" or "Uber driver". That's been the history of technology for millennia now. Probably way back in the Paleolithic there was a person like you grumbling that this newfangled flint-knapping was going to put all the pointed stick makers out of work.
      - forgetfreeman 2y ago
        Yeah no you don't. Your model of productivity and QoL improvement went off a cliff in the 60s. Since then we have consistently seen stagnant wages, narrowing of social mobility, increases in household debt, increases in required workload to maintain "middle-class" lifestyles, and economic catastrophe in rural communities. Automation in the 70s and 80s gutted manufacturing jobs with no obvious replacement, and that was before entire supply chains were offshored. Advances in ag tech combined with massive consolidation in the industry gutted rural ag communities with no obvious replacement. There are no combination of industries in the US that are reporting a shortfall of ~27M employees, which is the estimated headcount in the combined services industry currently. I see your coy ad hominem bs trying to frame me as a neo-luddite and I'm not impressed.
piva00 2y ago
One can see a glimpse of that in societies with small populations where labour is expensive, like in the Nordics.
- ghaff 2y ago
  And of course the converse where low-skill labor is relatively cheap.
  - piva00 2y ago
    Exactly, I've a close experience with this constrast, I'm originally from Brazil and moved to Sweden some 10 years ago. In Brazil where labour is cheap you will see a lot of staff at bars, restaurants, shops, etc. on a ratio that seems absolutely overstaffed for the amount of customers. While in Sweden is the complete opposite, in a fully packed large bar you will probably see 4-8 staff members (including guards) for the whole bar, including kitchen.
    - rglullis 2y ago
      And there is some conservation of economic output. The overstaffed kitchen is slow, untrained, has little autonomy to make snap decisions (payment machine is broken? Sorry, come back later). The small crew will make collectively make the same as the larger one, and will be able to serve as many or more people.
      - ghaff 2y ago
        Maybe. The overstaffed kitchen also has more slack if someone needs to go home sick or has some family emergency. We saw during the pandemic some of the downside of finely-tuned supply chains. But, yes, it's a balancing act and does depend on the cost of a bit of extra slack or "just in case" margin.

yieldcrv 2y ago

> "Human made" is going to be the premium brand keyword of 2030. I think it will be a niche. People are overindexing on how much they like things done with “soul” when they cant even define it fungible consciousness concept adds funny spices to food too

csa 2y ago

> Higher-end restaurants make their humans even more visible and push a hibachi/omakase model… I agree with all of your points, but… These Japanese words seem to have taken on vastly new meanings in the US. 1. Hibachi is a charcoal brazier/grill, not a griddle. I think you are referring to a teppan(yaki) (which is a flat griddle). Teppan for making food in front of customers can be found in places like okonomiyaki restaurants and higher end steak houses (subdued affairs minus the Benihana “tricks” by the chefs). 2. Omakase is just chef’s choice. It is not related to whether the preparation can be seen or not. I’m guessing you mean simply sitting at the “sushi bar”/counter seat rather than at a table. One can watch their food being made at a classic diner counter seat as well. Note that one of the best sushi experiences I’ve had in the US (outside of LA in a converted house) was omakase sushi in which we never saw the chef. All that said, “open kitchens” will almost certainly become signs of a premium dining experience.

keiferski 2y ago
Yeah, they are definitely different from their original meanings. It’s my impression that in the US, hibachi usually means “guy cooks steak and similar food in front of you” and omakase usually means “sushi is made in front of you while you sit at a bar.” The words refer more to the style of restaurant or presentation method, which can probably be tied into historical American dining culture in some way or another. A bit more on the hibachi controversy: https://selftaughtjapanese.com/2018/10/09/a-confusing-japanese-loanword-in-english-hibachi-it-may-not-mean-what-you-think-it-does/ https://selftaughtjapanese.com/2018/10/09/a-confusing-japane...

tithe 2y ago

I imagine the "lower-end" will be capped via government mandate preventing a workforce from being more than X% of robotic labor. ...that is, until the robotic chefs bribe the politicians at the Capitol Grille by giving them more french fries with their burgers to support laws for robot rights!