4 ms·

Sure, collected in the wild. Probably from a bat in some remote part of the world.

by jmpman 2y ago

kelseyfrog 2y ago
Thank you for disproving your own point.
- jmpman 2y ago
  What am I disproving? A Covid virus could have been in the wild, not yet transmitted to humans, and was then collected and brought to the lab. Only once it was accidentally released from the lab, (possibly having infected one of the workers), was it transmitted to the larger human population.
  - kelseyfrog 2y ago
    A trapped prior is a term for a stance that when adopted precludes someone from accepting contrary evidence. It's a belief blackhole.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - jmpman 2y ago
      What are the most likely scenarios? 1) The Covid virus ended up in the Wuhan wet market from an animal for sale there, brought with the virus from the wild and got introduced into a human. Sure, that’s possible, but why there, and why at that time? 2) A worker from the Wuhan Covid Lab got infected with a sample that had been collected in the wild previously, and transmitted it to people or animals in the Wuhan wet market which then set off the pandemic. 3) The virus was engineered in the lab for gain of function, making it more likely to be transmitted between people, and then accidentally infected a worker in the lab who went to the wet market, infected people or animals there, which set off the pandemic. I believe these are the three hypothesis which we are discussing. 1) possible, but seems unlikely. 2) seemed extremely possible. The lab is known to contain samples of Covid. It’s right next door to the wet market. 3) Gain of function happened to introduce exactly the capability this virus needed to infect others. Hanlon’s Razor - never attribute to Malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity. Suggests that #2 is more likely than #3. As for the wet market, I’d assume there are 10,000 similar wet markets in China. Only 1 is next door to a lab which studies covid. Why would this one wet market be the source, instead of the other 9,999? If you have other hypothesis, happy to consider other ways this virus was introduced. But, suggesting that it didn’t come from the Wuhan lab, feels like Chinese propaganda trying to gaslight.
      - kelseyfrog 2y ago
        All of these are addressed by Peter Miller in his debate with Saar Wilf[1]. What you're proposing isn't probabilistically sound. I'd really encourage you to watch the whole thing. They dive into likelihoods in much greater depth. 1. https://www.youtube.com/@tgof137/videos https://www.youtube.com/@tgof137/videos
        jmpman 2y ago
        Just watched. My proposals are probabilistically sound. https://youtu.be/6sOcdexHKnk?si=6qlqOHf9Dwe_j3vc https://youtu.be/6sOcdexHKnk?si=6qlqOHf9Dwe_j3vc 3min 10 seconds “The only lab leak scenario that fits is just someone going straight from the lab to the market” So, let’s just assume there was an infected scientist from the Wuhan lab, but instead of him/her going to the Wuhan wet market, they went to another market 800 meters from the lab, and that was the source of the outbreak. These talking heads would then be telling me the same infinitesimal probability of it coming from the Covid lab. The people with access to a known Covid source are literally 800 meters from the Wuhan wet market. An asymptomatic scientist walked to the Wuhan market, spent some time at one stall, and then went home. I find no improbable scenarios there.
        jmpman 2y ago
        Oh, but they do state that the infection cluster would have started in the lab. I disagree with this premise, as the lab workers are likely all wearing PPE. Just one had a protocol lapse and got infected. The rest were protected by their masks. Infected lab worker gets sick, but nobody else in the lab.
        kelseyfrog 2y ago
        If "why there, and why at that time?" is a valid scissor, then it can't just apply to some scenarios and not others. It must be a universal scissor. > An asymptomatic scientist walked to the Wuhan market, spent some time at one stall, and then went home. I find no improbable scenarios there. Why there, and why at that time? To me at least the probability of a virologist traveling to the wet market and then spreading the virus as if it were originated by zoonosis is strictly less probable than the scenario where it's simply zoonosis.

Sure, collected in the wild. Probably from a bat in some remote part of the world.

by jmpman 2y ago

Sure, collected in the wild. Probably from a bat in some remote part of the world.

kelseyfrog 2y ago

Thank you for disproving your own point.

jmpman 2y ago
What am I disproving? A Covid virus could have been in the wild, not yet transmitted to humans, and was then collected and brought to the lab. Only once it was accidentally released from the lab, (possibly having infected one of the workers), was it transmitted to the larger human population.
- kelseyfrog 2y ago
  A trapped prior is a term for a stance that when adopted precludes someone from accepting contrary evidence. It's a belief blackhole.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - jmpman 2y ago
    What are the most likely scenarios? 1) The Covid virus ended up in the Wuhan wet market from an animal for sale there, brought with the virus from the wild and got introduced into a human. Sure, that’s possible, but why there, and why at that time? 2) A worker from the Wuhan Covid Lab got infected with a sample that had been collected in the wild previously, and transmitted it to people or animals in the Wuhan wet market which then set off the pandemic. 3) The virus was engineered in the lab for gain of function, making it more likely to be transmitted between people, and then accidentally infected a worker in the lab who went to the wet market, infected people or animals there, which set off the pandemic. I believe these are the three hypothesis which we are discussing. 1) possible, but seems unlikely. 2) seemed extremely possible. The lab is known to contain samples of Covid. It’s right next door to the wet market. 3) Gain of function happened to introduce exactly the capability this virus needed to infect others. Hanlon’s Razor - never attribute to Malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity. Suggests that #2 is more likely than #3. As for the wet market, I’d assume there are 10,000 similar wet markets in China. Only 1 is next door to a lab which studies covid. Why would this one wet market be the source, instead of the other 9,999? If you have other hypothesis, happy to consider other ways this virus was introduced. But, suggesting that it didn’t come from the Wuhan lab, feels like Chinese propaganda trying to gaslight.
    - kelseyfrog 2y ago
      All of these are addressed by Peter Miller in his debate with Saar Wilf[1]. What you're proposing isn't probabilistically sound. I'd really encourage you to watch the whole thing. They dive into likelihoods in much greater depth. 1. https://www.youtube.com/@tgof137/videos https://www.youtube.com/@tgof137/videos
      - jmpman 2y ago
        Just watched. My proposals are probabilistically sound. https://youtu.be/6sOcdexHKnk?si=6qlqOHf9Dwe_j3vc https://youtu.be/6sOcdexHKnk?si=6qlqOHf9Dwe_j3vc 3min 10 seconds “The only lab leak scenario that fits is just someone going straight from the lab to the market” So, let’s just assume there was an infected scientist from the Wuhan lab, but instead of him/her going to the Wuhan wet market, they went to another market 800 meters from the lab, and that was the source of the outbreak. These talking heads would then be telling me the same infinitesimal probability of it coming from the Covid lab. The people with access to a known Covid source are literally 800 meters from the Wuhan wet market. An asymptomatic scientist walked to the Wuhan market, spent some time at one stall, and then went home. I find no improbable scenarios there.
        jmpman 2y ago
        Oh, but they do state that the infection cluster would have started in the lab. I disagree with this premise, as the lab workers are likely all wearing PPE. Just one had a protocol lapse and got infected. The rest were protected by their masks. Infected lab worker gets sick, but nobody else in the lab.
        kelseyfrog 2y ago
        If "why there, and why at that time?" is a valid scissor, then it can't just apply to some scenarios and not others. It must be a universal scissor. > An asymptomatic scientist walked to the Wuhan market, spent some time at one stall, and then went home. I find no improbable scenarios there. Why there, and why at that time? To me at least the probability of a virologist traveling to the wet market and then spreading the virus as if it were originated by zoonosis is strictly less probable than the scenario where it's simply zoonosis.