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The problem with using a dataset consisting of all games on lichess.org is that most/all instances of these moves are most certainly from people who are trying

by paxys 2y ago

The problem with using a dataset consisting of all games on lichess.org is that most/all instances of these moves are most certainly from people who are trying them out in a noncompetitive game just to see what happens. In fact he himself likely polluted the data further just to make this video, maybe even enough to change the answer. There needs to be a minimum bar for the data to be meaningful, e.g. by restricting to players above a certain rating threshold, or considering tournament games only.

shric 2y ago
He stated that he tried using master tournament games but the dataset was way too small. But yes indeed, the single example game he showed was indeed a result of the winner playing very silly moves and the loser allowing it rather than resigning.
- antaviana 2y ago
  In bullet games at Lichess it is not that uncommon to play on lost positions to try to either flag the opponent or to offload as many own pieces as possible to seek a stalemate with the frenzy. Conversely, the winning side then tries to delay the win by promoting a bunch of unneeded pieces and sort of demonstrating who is really in charge. It’s even fun.
  - shric 2y ago
    Yes, I've done it many times! At the time of writing based on total games played at https://database.lichess.org/ https://database.lichess.org/ one in every 272,369 games are mine :p
tavavex 2y ago
I don't think including "noncompetitive" games is an issue. For a game with so many possible states, it only makes sense to ask about what moves have been played at all, and not the context that these moves were played in. Plus, restricting the dataset introduces more biases and ambiguities. What exact ELO should be "good enough" for consideration? Why not a point higher or lower? Should they have accounted for time control too, because people in speed chess play worse and can get into weird situations they otherwise wouldn't have been in?

by paxys 2y ago

shric 2y ago

He stated that he tried using master tournament games but the dataset was way too small. But yes indeed, the single example game he showed was indeed a result of the winner playing very silly moves and the loser allowing it rather than resigning.

antaviana 2y ago
In bullet games at Lichess it is not that uncommon to play on lost positions to try to either flag the opponent or to offload as many own pieces as possible to seek a stalemate with the frenzy. Conversely, the winning side then tries to delay the win by promoting a bunch of unneeded pieces and sort of demonstrating who is really in charge. It’s even fun.
- shric 2y ago
  Yes, I've done it many times! At the time of writing based on total games played at https://database.lichess.org/ https://database.lichess.org/ one in every 272,369 games are mine :p

tavavex 2y ago

I don't think including "noncompetitive" games is an issue. For a game with so many possible states, it only makes sense to ask about what moves have been played at all, and not the context that these moves were played in. Plus, restricting the dataset introduces more biases and ambiguities. What exact ELO should be "good enough" for consideration? Why not a point higher or lower? Should they have accounted for time control too, because people in speed chess play worse and can get into weird situations they otherwise wouldn't have been in?