5 ms·

Ask HN: Is there an impending stock market crash or world war?

14 points by roschdal 2y ago

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
Finnucane 2y ago
Isn't there always?
dave4420 2y ago
How soon counts as “impending”?
jotux 2y ago
I read this[1] a while back and it has stuck with me. There is a huge economy of doomers trying to convince you everything is just about to fall apart and they have some solution that will save you from the uninformed masses. [1] https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/12/rich-author-poor-readers/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/12/rich-author-poor-re...
sabbaticaldev 2y ago
Yes. For the past 20 years, I’d say
Bostonian 2y ago
VIX, a measure of S&P 500 implied volatility, is pretty low at 13, so the options market does not anticipate a high probability of a stock market crash, which of course does not rule it out.
- giantg2 2y ago
  Sort of. VIX being low means the volatility is low right now. If you want to look at what the market think, you'd have to look at the premiums for the various strike prices. I would guess the market anticipates hitting 20ish within the next year. That's still not super high. 13 seems low even by historical standards. I might need to place a bet on VIX going up depending on what the option prices look like.
  - Bostonian 2y ago
    To see what the VIX futures market implies future VIX will be, see http://vixcentral.com/ http://vixcentral.com/ . The implied future values are higher than current but not especially high compared to history.
- JSDevOps 2y ago
  That can change in a day. So that’s not a thing.
simonblack 2y ago
Read up on the Thucydides Trap and on the Wolfowitz Doctrine first. When you have a good understanding of the ramifications of both, apply that knowledge to the state of the World. Make up your own mind. In my opinion, the answer is 'Yes' to both your questions. And within the next 3 years at most. When it comes to the 'Goodies' and the 'Baddies', the West are the 'Baddies' in this case.
ActorNightly 2y ago
Nobody with public knowledge can either say yes or no. If anyone tells you either yes or no, ask them to show you their financial positions. If they have none, their opinion is pointless.
sfmz 2y ago
Hard to imagine a resolution to the Korean situation that doesn't lead to a world war.
- dave4420 2y ago
  Easy to imagine the Korean situation remaining unresolved for another lifetime.
- giantg2 2y ago
  Seems pretty easy to me. If information flows more freely, internal opinions change, potential for an internal leader to change policies (or coup, uprising). It seems reasonably possible in a generation or so successions could happen to further that. A regional/global war is one of the other higher possiblies, of course.
- gaws 2y ago
  We're only a few hours away from nuclear annihilation if North Korea decides to launch an ICBM at Washington, D.C.
  - ElectronCharge 2y ago
    That's the wildest hyperbole, although NK is a far cry from Russia. One or a few ICBMs from NK would likely get shot down by BMD. I hope the US response would be measured, meaning Russia and China would be diplomatically notified before the US wipes Pyongyang and the NK military off the Earth - one hopes avoiding nuclear holocaust. If the US/Europe and Russia/China have an exchange, it'll be horrific and utterly world-altering.
    - gaws 2y ago
      The BMD is not as reliable as you may think, especially if we're dealing with multiple ICBMs on their way to the United States.
markus_zhang 2y ago
About the next World War, some people said it is already being waged, and some people said it is never going to happen. And some people said that World War 2 never ended. If you are talking about a "traditional" hot war. I think it is unlikely that it happens in the immediate future (< 5 years). I have thought about the scenarios: - War and politics are usually intertwined. People wage wars because they cannot fix the internal political squabbles so they wage war to their neighbors. - So far, the only major player that is waging a traditional hot war is Russia (v.s. Ukraine and other NATO members in certain ways). - So far, none of the other major players is in a major crisis -- or maybe I should say, they never completely recovered from the last crisis and so far have been prolonging the inevitable with some success. And I don't see a way that such success may suddenly be elusive to them. Both China and the US have internal problems, but so far none is violent enough to even make major reforms. - The road to destruction, IMO, is always refinement -> reform -> war -> revolution. We are simply not there yet. I think China is at second stage, US is between first and second stage, and EU is sort of in the same place. Only Russia goes to the third stage, albeit with a mediocre show. Anyway, I don't believe that a world war is impending. Some local wars should be expected, but nothing major except that in the future we will learn in history books that those lead to the inevitable.
farseer 2y ago
Lets examine the major flash points: Ukraine war won't lead anywhere unless Russia starts to loose and lobs a nuke or European powers decide to get involved directly to save Ukraine. For now its a stalemate. The destruction of the Gazan Palestinians would also not escalate regionally unless Israel decides to one up and invade Lebanon. Which seems unlikely as America would stop them at the risk of loosing its own standing in the region further. The Chinese invasion of Taiwan offers the most realistic chance of a World War :) But they have seen the Russian drubbing and know that victory isn't guarantied while defeat might end the Communist party as we know it. The rest of conflict zones in South Asia, Armenia-Azeri, North-South Korea seem frozen right now.
- muzani 2y ago
  I feel like America is likely to just drop Israel as an ally. Too much liability. This might lead to Israel feeling cornered and going full nuclear. Iran also has Iron Dome data it might need to building better missiles, and we'll probably see some more bloodshed in this region later. One of the more worrying things is that some countries are getting serious war experience. How to shoot down the new generation of missiles, planes, drones. How to mess up targeting, or new ways of targeting. There's a possibility of a breakthrough, like many in the past - Mongol hordes, WW2 Axis, Napoleon.
  - giantg2 2y ago
    It's extremely unlikely we drop Isreal as an ally. Hell, they even sank one of our ships years ago and were still going. The relationship and its effects run deep on both sides.
barrenko 2y ago
I'd say there's a great-er probability of a cold war now, but I get my opinions from Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/happy-fun-cold-war-2-update https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/happy-fun-cold-war-2-update.
JSDevOps 2y ago
Almost certainly. You’ll know by November. As early as August.

14 points by roschdal 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

Finnucane 2y ago

Isn't there always?

dave4420 2y ago

How soon counts as “impending”?

jotux 2y ago

I read this[1] a while back and it has stuck with me. There is a huge economy of doomers trying to convince you everything is just about to fall apart and they have some solution that will save you from the uninformed masses. [1] https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/12/rich-author-poor-readers/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/12/rich-author-poor-re...

sabbaticaldev 2y ago

Yes. For the past 20 years, I’d say

Bostonian 2y ago

VIX, a measure of S&P 500 implied volatility, is pretty low at 13, so the options market does not anticipate a high probability of a stock market crash, which of course does not rule it out.

giantg2 2y ago
Sort of. VIX being low means the volatility is low right now. If you want to look at what the market think, you'd have to look at the premiums for the various strike prices. I would guess the market anticipates hitting 20ish within the next year. That's still not super high. 13 seems low even by historical standards. I might need to place a bet on VIX going up depending on what the option prices look like.
- Bostonian 2y ago
  To see what the VIX futures market implies future VIX will be, see http://vixcentral.com/ http://vixcentral.com/ . The implied future values are higher than current but not especially high compared to history.
JSDevOps 2y ago
That can change in a day. So that’s not a thing.

simonblack 2y ago

Read up on the Thucydides Trap and on the Wolfowitz Doctrine first. When you have a good understanding of the ramifications of both, apply that knowledge to the state of the World. Make up your own mind. In my opinion, the answer is 'Yes' to both your questions. And within the next 3 years at most. When it comes to the 'Goodies' and the 'Baddies', the West are the 'Baddies' in this case.

ActorNightly 2y ago

Nobody with public knowledge can either say yes or no. If anyone tells you either yes or no, ask them to show you their financial positions. If they have none, their opinion is pointless.

sfmz 2y ago

Hard to imagine a resolution to the Korean situation that doesn't lead to a world war.

dave4420 2y ago
Easy to imagine the Korean situation remaining unresolved for another lifetime.
giantg2 2y ago
Seems pretty easy to me. If information flows more freely, internal opinions change, potential for an internal leader to change policies (or coup, uprising). It seems reasonably possible in a generation or so successions could happen to further that. A regional/global war is one of the other higher possiblies, of course.
gaws 2y ago
We're only a few hours away from nuclear annihilation if North Korea decides to launch an ICBM at Washington, D.C.
- ElectronCharge 2y ago
  That's the wildest hyperbole, although NK is a far cry from Russia. One or a few ICBMs from NK would likely get shot down by BMD. I hope the US response would be measured, meaning Russia and China would be diplomatically notified before the US wipes Pyongyang and the NK military off the Earth - one hopes avoiding nuclear holocaust. If the US/Europe and Russia/China have an exchange, it'll be horrific and utterly world-altering.
  - gaws 2y ago
    The BMD is not as reliable as you may think, especially if we're dealing with multiple ICBMs on their way to the United States.

markus_zhang 2y ago

About the next World War, some people said it is already being waged, and some people said it is never going to happen. And some people said that World War 2 never ended. If you are talking about a "traditional" hot war. I think it is unlikely that it happens in the immediate future (< 5 years). I have thought about the scenarios: - War and politics are usually intertwined. People wage wars because they cannot fix the internal political squabbles so they wage war to their neighbors. - So far, the only major player that is waging a traditional hot war is Russia (v.s. Ukraine and other NATO members in certain ways). - So far, none of the other major players is in a major crisis -- or maybe I should say, they never completely recovered from the last crisis and so far have been prolonging the inevitable with some success. And I don't see a way that such success may suddenly be elusive to them. Both China and the US have internal problems, but so far none is violent enough to even make major reforms. - The road to destruction, IMO, is always refinement -> reform -> war -> revolution. We are simply not there yet. I think China is at second stage, US is between first and second stage, and EU is sort of in the same place. Only Russia goes to the third stage, albeit with a mediocre show. Anyway, I don't believe that a world war is impending. Some local wars should be expected, but nothing major except that in the future we will learn in history books that those lead to the inevitable.

farseer 2y ago

Lets examine the major flash points: Ukraine war won't lead anywhere unless Russia starts to loose and lobs a nuke or European powers decide to get involved directly to save Ukraine. For now its a stalemate. The destruction of the Gazan Palestinians would also not escalate regionally unless Israel decides to one up and invade Lebanon. Which seems unlikely as America would stop them at the risk of loosing its own standing in the region further. The Chinese invasion of Taiwan offers the most realistic chance of a World War :) But they have seen the Russian drubbing and know that victory isn't guarantied while defeat might end the Communist party as we know it. The rest of conflict zones in South Asia, Armenia-Azeri, North-South Korea seem frozen right now.

muzani 2y ago
I feel like America is likely to just drop Israel as an ally. Too much liability. This might lead to Israel feeling cornered and going full nuclear. Iran also has Iron Dome data it might need to building better missiles, and we'll probably see some more bloodshed in this region later. One of the more worrying things is that some countries are getting serious war experience. How to shoot down the new generation of missiles, planes, drones. How to mess up targeting, or new ways of targeting. There's a possibility of a breakthrough, like many in the past - Mongol hordes, WW2 Axis, Napoleon.
- giantg2 2y ago
  It's extremely unlikely we drop Isreal as an ally. Hell, they even sank one of our ships years ago and were still going. The relationship and its effects run deep on both sides.

barrenko 2y ago

I'd say there's a great-er probability of a cold war now, but I get my opinions from Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/happy-fun-cold-war-2-update https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/happy-fun-cold-war-2-update.

JSDevOps 2y ago

Almost certainly. You’ll know by November. As early as August.