2 ms·
Nuclear bombs aren't the only technology that made ww2 so bad. Pretty much every technology has been used for harm one way in another. The question is on balanc
by cm2187 2y ago
Nuclear bombs aren't the only technology that made ww2 so bad. Pretty much every technology has been used for harm one way in another. The question is on balance whether we are better off with or without.
- hollerith 2y agoSince you are bringing up WW2, I'm guessing you do not realize that by "destroy humanity", the OpenAI insider (Kokotajlo) means "reduce the human population to exactly zero". He does not mean, "kill people" or even "kill many people".
- textninja 2y agoHe added a lesser option, catastrophically harming humanity, so whatever he meant by the first is immaterial (“there’s a 70% chance of a hurricane or strong winds”). Furthermore, if it wasn’t a high number chosen for dramatic effect the estimated percentage would be completely arbitrary.
- hollerith 2y agoI disagree that 70% was chosen for dramatic effect.
- textninja 2y agoNo, you’re right, it was chosen because “trust me bro”. Look, it may well be something he believes, and he’s free to prognosticate (or market) however he likes, but I see absolutely nothing to support the number outside of his own opinion. Besides, there’s no time limit on p(doom), so it’s completely unfalsifiable (“on a long enough timescale…”), and it’s about the destruction of humanity which means it’s unprovable as well. That, in my view, makes his 70% guess a sensational statement lacking scientific merit.