May be I'm ignorant but how does anyone go about estimating this, much less doing so in a realistic fashion? The article states AGI will be developed by these p

May be I'm ignorant but how does anyone go about estimating this, much less doing so in a realistic fashion? The article states AGI will be developed by these people by 2027, but we've heard all the estimates that we'd have self driving cars by now and most people wouldn't drive, while self driving cars are becoming a thing, they missed their target year by years now. Unless I'm mistaken, even GenAI hasn't really changed anything worthwhile. Most of the changes I see are a) most of the scummy and creepy internet ads are now AI generated b) endless spam is now AI generated and c) the latest round of tech layoffs used GenAI as an excuse. Has there been an actual revolution I've missed? ...and so, if GenAI hasn't lived up to the hype, how am I supposed to believe that this industry will make actual existing AGI?