I remember in 1999 or so near the top of the dot-com bubble, there was similar hype, and I was like "Sure, over 20 years this thing is going to be huge. Over t

I remember in 1999 or so near the top of the dot-com bubble, there was similar hype, and I was like "Sure, over 20 years this thing is going to be huge. Over the next 2, many people are going to get screwed." Same thing for crypto in 2014 and then again every time a new crypto bubble happens. The problem is that capital isn't that patient. People are sinking billions into LLM integrations, at discount rates of 5%+. If it takes 20 years for a tech to pay off, at a 5% discount rate, and you sunk a billion dollars into it, it needs to earn back $2.65B. Moreover, at some point during that 20-year period, somebody's going to ask "Where's my billion dollars?" and pull the plug on the project. I think the tech behind LLMs may eventually be game-changing, but that tech is going to change ownership and get reinvented several times, and we won't actually see profitable, sustainable benefits until industries get refactored into cost structures that make sense for what LLMs can actually do. The web needed its Netscape and Yahoo and Geocities and Apache, but it also needed Google and Rails and Django and GitHub and Stripe and Facebook and Webkit and nginx and MySQL to really become what it did.