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I tend to agree with the caveat that we are experiencing exponentially diminishing marginal returns on investment (energy, FLOPS, currency). Yes it's going to g
by inciampati 2y ago
I tend to agree with the caveat that we are experiencing exponentially diminishing marginal returns on investment (energy, FLOPS, currency). Yes it's going to get a lot better and smoother to work with. Agents will become secret and someday very soon no one will want to hype that they are using the tech. But we will need another revolution to get the kind of phase change we experienced with the introduction of LLMs. Imo the biggest thing that will lead to improvement now is open models that will get reused and remixed in creative ways.
edit: to be clear, I'm saying that we are running into scaling "walls" that make hard extrapolation based on increased investment senseless.
- kipchak 2y agoGartner puts Generative AI at just about it's peak in terms of Hype back in August of 2023[1], with a 2-5 year time frame to go through the "trough of disillusionment" and then back to the "plateau of productivity", which seems pretty fair to me. [1]https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/what-s-new-in-the-2023-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/what-s-new-in-the-2023-g...
- red-iron-pine 2y agoThe disruptive technology standard trend of: "the market would be huge" to "there is no market" to "there is a market, and it's growing"